The Official SBRtv MLB Auto-Fade List ended its third week at a profit of 8.4 units, and welcomed SBR contributor Bob Harvey as the guest expert to update the list and give his suggestions for some additions.
The Houston Astros, a profitable fade all around all year, as well as a profitable member of the list, is troubling SBRtv host Peter Loshak as a fade going forward. Houston liquidated their quality veteran players, and brought up a slew of talented minor leaguers to finish out the season, which is sure to see the Astros as a big underdog in most games.
Another bad team on the list, the Seattle Mariners, recently won one out of 3 games at Texas as a big underdog, and don’t have any road game this week, but do have a week full of road games coming up next week. We’ll see if the list managers keep Seattle and Houston on the list.
This week, Bob Harvey agreed on the fades of San Diego and Colorado, two teams struggling to the finish line in the West, and he also sees the Cincinnati Reds as a team that may be overvalued in the near future.
Due to the delight of auto-faders everywhere, Jo-Jo Reyes has resurfaced in the major leagues, this time with the Baltimore Orioles. Reyes was initially put on the Auto-Fade list earlier in the year when he was with Toronto, but he was too horrible to stick around for too long.
However, Baltimore’s starting staff has been hit by the injury bug, and they see Reyes as the best option to go with, at least for now. Baltimore’s less-than-awesome lineup may be less likely than Toronto’s lineup to be able to bail a team out of a bad start by Reyes, so the list managers are eager to have Reyes re-join the list.
A few other starting pitchers were considered for the list this week, introduced by Bob Harvey. Chad Billingsley has obvious Cy Young talent – for at least half of the innings he pitches. But the rest of the time he does seem vulnerable to implosions, and his awesome stuff the other times does tend to keep his betting odds on the high side.
John Lackey of the Boston Red Sox hit a very rough patch this year, but has kept pushing through, and it’s not clear if he is in for more losing in the near future. He will likely be a big favorite though, in light of his reputation and Boston’s lineup. And finally, capable but aging starter Hiroki Kuroda of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who has a history of fading in the later months of the season, may be a decent auto-fade, with the Dodgers’ modest lineup tending to not give him much support.
The
overall record of the list now stands at 24-11, +10.3 units, with an average
line of -140. As always, these numbers are based on the closing line at
Pinnacle.
Another
starting pitcher, J.A. Happ, will have to be taken off the list though, as
Houston has sent him down to the minors. Not a huge surprise. Any starting
pitcher truly worthy of being on the list is not likely to stay in the majors
for too long. The list managers see the fact that almost all of the starting
pitchers they initially put on the list are now no longer starting as a good
sign.
Randy
Wells of the Chicago Cubs is now the only starting pitcher on the list. Wells
delivered with a loss on Sunday, and is likely to get a start on the road at
Atlanta this weekend, where he will probably be a significantly big underdog.
Houston,
very probably the worst overall team in the majors, but with a new influx of
young players being brought in to play out the year, will be a big underdog in
their upcoming series at Arizona. Their lines may be bottoming out just as
their team stabilizes its performance on the field. So they will be an
Auto-Fade for this week’s Arizona series, but they may not stay on the list too
much longer. And Seattle, an Auto-Fade this week at Texas, may also have lines
catching up to their current form, as they open the series as a well over +200
underdog for Game 1.
So the
list may get a big revision with the next show on Thursday, tune in to see what
the cappers think. And if you have any suggestions for the list, post them in
the thread on SBRForum.com.
The first week of the new SBRtv show “The Official SBRtv MLB Auto-Fade List Show” didn’t go well, resulting in 3 wins and 3 losses. But with an average line of -173, the list wound up down, -1.94 units. But, it’s a marathon not a sprint, and the cappers on the show believe that value will reveal itself in the long-term.
And the second week of the list has gotten off to a very good start after adjustments and additions, and the list’s overall record is now in the black after the weekend’s action, standing at +3.03 units.
The Official SBRtv MLB Auto-Fade List money train kept rolling over the weekend. There were a few losses with favorite money lines, as is to be expected, but there were enough wins to more than make up for those losses, and the list gained about 2 units in profit over the weekend.
Unsurprisingly,
2 of the 6 starting pitchers from the initial list are already out of their
respective rotations; Jo-Jo Reyes was sent to the minors once again, while Zach
Duke was sent to the bullpen. And Kyle Davies was scratched from his last
start due to a sore right shoulder. Davies is officially day-to-day, but a trip
to the DL does seem likely.
Controversial
list member Charlie Morton of the very profitable Pittsburgh Pirates was taken
off the list this week, as input from an SBR poster confirmed host Peter
Loshak’s feelings about Morton. The SBR poster jeffdane posted in the thread
“Charlie Morton is not garbage, and will burn you if you autofade him”, and
since the guest on the show who initially got Morton on the list, professional
handicapper Robert Ferringo from Doc’s Sports, couldn’t make the show this
week, the pressure to get Morton off the list won out.
The
two remaining starters on the list, however, do have starts coming up. Randy
Wells of the Chicago Cubs is slated to start Tuesday on the road at Pittsburgh,
which has been the most profitable team in all of baseball this year. However,
the Pirates have skidded a bit lately. Opposing Wells will be Kevin Correia,
who has been decent overall on the year, but seems to be wearing out a bit
after a very poor July.
J.A.
Happ paid dividends again with another loss last Saturday. He should get a
start next weekend in Houston’s home series against Milwaukee.
The
additions to this week’s list were 5 teams that Loshak and guest professional
handicapper Indian Cowboy, also from Doc’s Sports, think may be overvalued
either on the road or at home.
On
the road, Peter Loshak suggested auto-fading 3 weak-hitting teams: Houston, Oakland,
and Seattle. Houston paid off immediately by getting swept by Milwaukee over
the weekend, but they have no more road games until next week. Loshak says he
will be interested in keeping them on the list, expressing the opinion that the
market will still not be caught up with just how futile they are on the road,
especially after trading away leading hitter Hunter Pence.
Oakland
goes on the road into Seattle, actually, which will result in 3 auto-bets ON
Seattle at home. Oakland’s offense came very much alive at the end of July,
where they averaged almost 8 runs a game during a homestand in their
pitcher-friendly park. We’ll see if they can maintain that offensive production
on the road in an even more pitcher-friendly park in Seattle.
Indian
Cowboy interestingly suggested auto-fading 2 N.L. West teams at home, Colorado
and San Diego. That recommendation paid small early dividends when Colorado
took 2 of 3 from San Diego at San Diego, and now both teams host home series
that will hopefully prove IC right. The Rockies host tough and newly-improved
Philly, and then Washington on Thursday, while the Padres host the Dodgers for
a 3-game series.
Let us know how you feel about our predictions, and share your thoughts with us in our forum thread.