Marlins vs. Phillies: MLB Picks

Follow our series coverage as the Philadlphia Phillies play host to the Miami Marlins for a three game set starting Monday. How do we plan on placing our MLB picks when two teams with little to play for face off?

Had both teams lived up to expectations this year, today's matchup on the mound would've been must-see as the Miami Marlins conclude their stop in Philadelphia against the Phillies. Even with both teams out of the hunt, it still presents an intriguing duel for baseball bettors to consider. 

Cliff Lee toes the rubber for Charlie Manuel's Phils and Josh Johnson gets the ball from Ozzie Guillen in the matinee affair that begins the MLB betting card on Wednesday. The Phillies are priced at -155 for the contest and the 7 run total will cost a little more for the OVER at most of the top MLB shops listed on SBR odds. 

Philadelphia got back to .500 for the season with a 9-7 win on Tuesday as Jimmy Rollins and Juan Pierre did most of the damage at the top of the order for the Phils. It was their sixth consecutive win and Manuel's charges can close out a perfect 6-0 homestand with a dubya this afternoon. 

Johnson and Lee have both been in good grooves of late. Johnson has just one bad start among his last nine and had primarily been the victim of poor run support before the Fish scored six in his last outing. He was bombed in Philly in his second start of season, but since has limited the Phils to 2 ER in a pair of subsequent starts totaling 14 innings. Typical for him, one was 1-0 loss in Miami about a month ago. 

Lee has started three straight wins for the Phils, allowing just three earned runs in 20.1 IP during the span. The southpaw will be out to atone for a poor effort in Miami at the end of June when he surrendered six runs without making it through the fifth in his only appearance against the Marlins this year. 

I don't see any reason not to continue riding the Philly train at this time and will make a play on the home team in today's series finale. Don't forget to check back as we'll continue to follow the Phillies the next four days as they begin a 7-game road trip in Houston. 

My pick: Phillies -155

One of the many voices inside my head kept repeating yesterday, "Phillies run line, Phillies run line." I listened to my therapist instead, and ignored that voice.

Stupid therapist! 

We can't complain, though, and by we, I mean myself and the voices who still linger. The play on the UNDER in Game 1 between Philadelphia and the Miami Marlins did pay off, and we get another chance to make some money on this series when it continues Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. 

The MLB odds list the Phillies as heavy favorites behind Roy Halladay who is -210 chalk. Nate Eovaldi will oppose Halladay with totals available in the 7.5 to 8 run range, and priced accordingly depending where one makes that wager. 

Monday's 3-1 win means the Phils can get back to .500 with a victory on Tuesday. It's hard to believe that if successful, it will be the first time they've been level in the standings since June 4. Clubs that are -185 favorites to win their division simply aren't expected to struggle like the 2012 season has been for Charlie Manuel's crew. 

Then again, Ozzie Guillen and the Fish weren't supposed to be bottom feeders in the NL East tank either. 

Eovaldi has lost three straight assignments and both of his starts against the Phillies this year. Tuesday will be his cherry off the mound in Philly, and he owns a 5.07 ERA in 2012 when he pitches outside of Los Angeles or Miami.

Roy Halladay hasn't been his usual dominating self in 2012, but he's been a consistent winner in the second half following almost seven weeks on the disabled list. The Phillies are 8-2 in his 10 starts since the all-star break, though one of the losses did come to the Marlins down in Miami. Doc worked seven pretty good innings in that game before his bullpen imploded, and he shut the Fish down earlier this year in Philadelphia with seven frames of 1-run ball. 

There are no voices telling me to lay -210, and none have made a good argument for either side of the total yet. That just leaves the run line which is where I will make my play in Game 2. 

My pick: Phillies -1.5 (-105)

It was supposed to have been a series that was played with the NL East title on the line after the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins entered the 2012 campaign as the top favorites in the division.

That won't be the case, however, when the Marlins begin a 3-game set Monday evening at Citizens Bank Park in Philly. Both clubs are well out of the playoff picture by now, but we're still going to follow the Phils all week with game previews and sports picks for all seven of their contests.

Game 1 of the week and this series finds the Phillies $1.40 favorites behind Kyle Kendrick, maybe a few cents higher depending where you make your wagers. The Fish will send Wade LeBlanc to the mound and the MLB odds are showing 8.5 for the total, with the UNDER priced around -120.

Miami all but cashed it in about six weeks ago when the club dealt Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, among others, away at the deadline. Instead of fighting for the NL East title, the Marlins are last in the division, nearly two dozen games out of the lead, and rank as huge disappointments at 63-78. They did just take two of three in Washington by scoring 21 runs against a fine Nats pitching staff, but it was their first series victory since early August. 

As disappointing as the Marlins may be, the Phillies rank as even bigger underachievers after beginning the 2012 campaign as the favorites to represent the Senior Circuit in the World Series. They have been playing better in the second half with Sunday's doubleheader sweep of the Colorado Rockies leaving Philadelphia 32-21 since the all-star break and 69-71 for the season. That's the closest to .500 the Phils have been since they were 28-30 on June 6. 

LeBlanc started the year in the minors before joining the team in early July and pitching from the pen. The lefty moved into the rotation in August for five starts, then back to relief for about two weeks before rejoining the rotation last Tuesday against the Brewers (6 IP, 3 ER) in a no-decision the Marlins ultimately lost. 

He hasn't seen the Phillies at all this season, but did make a couple of starts against them the past few years when he was toiling for the Padres. LeBlanc split the efforts in the W-L columns and pitched well both times (1.80 ERA, 15 IP). The Phillies are 20-24 against left-handed starters entering the week.

Kendrick has also mixed things up this season between the bullpen and rotation, with Monday's assignment his 21st to go with 12 relief appearances. The Houston native has been exceptional the last five times out with four wins in that stretch to go with his 1.53 ERA.

The string started with seven shutout innings in a 1-0 victory at Miami in mid-August, Kendrick's second winning performance vs. the Marlins this year. He's won his last seven decisions against the Fish, and is 9-2 with a 3.92 ERA lifetime.

The Phillies are 44-36 against the Marlins at CBP over the years, 3-3 this season while the OVER has cashed in four of the first six meetings on this field. Miami has the 7-5 edge overall this year, but has struggled on the road in general with a 31-41 mark. 

All signs point to gorgeous weather in the City of Brotherly Love this week as clear skies fill the forecast for this series. This afternoon's high will only reach the mid-70s with the thermometer already dipping into the 60s by first pitch.

Philadelphia's recent surge has me leaning their direction tonight, but I will be placing my MLB picks on the total instead, where I will back the UNDER.

Free MLB Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-120)