These teams have split the first two games of this
series, Washington winning Friday 6-4 but New York taking Saturday's game 2-0
behind a quality start from Jon Niese and a two-run seventh-inning homer from
Ike Davis. Who do we like in the rubber match?
The Mets won Saturday as +130 underdogs on the MLB betting
line, and the game never threatened its total of eight.
Sunday's victory was just New York's fourth in 14 games vs.
the Nationals this season.
Gio Gonzalez (15-6, 3.29) hits the hill Sunday for
Washington vs. rookie Jeremy Hefner (2-4, 4.76) for New York.
Gonzalez is 15-for-24 on quality starts this year, and the
Nats are a profitable 18-6 in games he's started. His last time out, Gonzalez
held the Giants to two runs and seven hits over 6 2/3 innings last Monday, and
over his last four starts he's allowed 13 ER over 29 2/3 innings.
On the season, Gonzo has allowed just 113 hits in 148
innings, walked 56 and struck out 158.
Three weeks ago Gonzalez made back-to-back starts against
the Mets, losing the first one by giving up six runs in less than four innings
but winning the second start by holding New York to one unearned run and two
hits in seven innings.
Hefner is two-for-six on quality starts this season, to go
along with his 12 appearances in relief. Most recently, Hefner gave up a run in
two innings of relief vs. the Reds Wednesday, and over his last four
appearances he's allowed three ER in 12 2/3 innings.
On the season, Hefner has given up 68 hits in 57 innings, but
his K/BB ratio is pretty good, at 33/10.
In two starts this year vs. the Nationals Hefner has allowed
five ER and 13 hits over 12 innings.
Sunday's Betting Odds
As of Sunday AM the best MLB odds we could find on Washington
was the -197 offered at Matchbook, while New York could be played at +195 at
Legends. The Nationals could also be found at +107 on the run line at
And most books were listing the total on Sunday's game at
Early betting on Sunday's game has seen almost a 70/30 split
toward the Nationals and a 65/35 split on the total toward the UNDER.
Free MLB Pick
We like Washington
here, but we're not too high on that big price. So we'll play the Nationals on
the run line, and hope their bats break loose after getting stymied yesterday.