Mets vs. Padres: MLB Picks

Fresh off taking three of four games in San Francisco from the NL West-leading Giants the New York Mets head down the coast for three games in San Diego with the Padres starting Friday night. Who do we like for Sunday's game? You might not want to know.

Sunday's Pitching Matchup 

San Diego will go with veteran Jason Marquis (6-10, 5.54) Sunday vs. New York rookie Matt Harvey (1-1, 1.59). 

Marquis is six-for-11 on quality starts since coming to the Padres from Minnesota back in May. His last time out he got bopped for seven runs on eight hits, including three homers, in 6 1/3 innings of 7-6 San Diego loss last Tuesday. But just before that, he held the Giants to one ER on three hits over 7 1/3 innings. 

With the Padres, Marquis has allowed 73 hits, including nine homers, in 68 innings. 

This will be Marquis' first start this season vs. the Mets; last year, in two appearances vs. New York, he allowed four ER in 9 1/3 innings.

Warming up over in the other bullpen, Harvey has started twice recently as he debuts in the Major Leagues. In his first start 10 days ago at Arizona, he gave up no runs on three hits through 5 1/3 innings, walked three and struck out 11; then Monday at San Francisco, he gave up two ER on four hits in six innings, with three walks and seven whiffs. So so far Harvey has done about as much as the Mets could ask him to. 

Sunday's Betting Odds 

Most MLB odds makers we surfed Sunday morning opened this game with New York chalked at around -120, but with about two-thirds of the early action coming in on the Mets that number got bumped to -135 and even -140 at some places. 

New York could also be played at upwards of +125 on the run line at some online sportsbooks. 

And most places have the total for Sunday's game listed at seven. 

Free MLB Pick 

We've been thinking for some time now the Mets would fold, and for a while there, back a couple of weeks ago, that's what looked like what was going to happen. Then they split a series in Arizona, won three games in San Francisco, and they've split the first two games of this series San Diego. So, let's just say they've been a pain in my ass recently. 

That doesn't mean we won't keep fading them. 

The Pads took the opener of this series Friday night 3-1, rallying for a run in the sixth and two in the seventh off Mets starter RA Dickey.

San Diego won as a +125 underdog on the MLB betting board Friday, and the game stayed 'under' its total of 6.5.

New York is now 5-4 on its current West Coast road trip, while the victory for the Padres broke a three-game losing streak.

Saturday's Pitching Matchup

Edinson Volquez (7-7, 3.51) will toss the pill Saturday for San Diego against rookie Jeremy Hefner (1-4, 5.52) for New York.

Volquez is 11-for-22 on quality starts this year, and five for his last seven. His last time out Volquez gave up five runs in six innings against the Reds last Tuesday, but in his two starts previous to that he held the Astros and Giants to two runs on just four hits over 16 innings. On the season the Padres, a team that's 18 games under .500 overall, are 11-11 in games started by Volquez.

In his one start this season against the Mets Volquez allowed two runs on five hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 2-0 San Diego loss back in late May. 

Hefner, on the other hand, is just one-for-five on quality starts this season. Most recently he gave up four ER on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Giants last Tuesday, and in his two starts since the All-Star break he's allowed six ER over 11 2/3 innings. 

In his one career outing against San Diego Hefner got nicked for six ER on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings in an 11-5 Mets loss back in May. 

Saturday's Betting Odds 

As of Saturday AM most online baseball betting shops were listing San Diego at right around -135 for Saturday night's game, with a total of seven. 

In early betting on Saturday's game action on the side has split just about right down the middle, while play on the total has leaned, somewhat surprisingly, by a 60/40 margin toward the 'over.' 

Free MLB Pick 

The Mets continue to baffle us. When we're on them, they lose, like Friday night, and when we fade them they've tended to bite us in the ass. For Saturday we'll put our padded shorts on and take San Diego with Volquez.

Mets against Padres: The Situation

As mentioned above New York just took three of four games in San Fran, capping things off with a 9-1 romp Thursday. The Mets won those three games as MLB odds underdogs of +175, +160 and +125, creating some serious headaches for those who, like your humbled correspondent, faded the New Yorkers in those games. 

So the Mets, at 52-54, now sit 8.5 games out of the nearest NL playoff spot, the No. 2 Wild-Card berth currently held down by Atlanta. 

San Diego, meanwhile, just dropped three of four games in Cincinnati, losing that series finale Thursday 9-4. So the Pads have lost their last three series and seven of their last 10 games. At 44-63 San Diego is just playing for pride right now. 

Friday's Pitching Matchup 

New York will go with its horse, RA Dickey (14-2, 2.83), for Friday's series opener, while San Diego will throw lefty Clayton Richard (7-11, 4.14). 

Dickey, who had been crazy great almost all season, had a rough month of July, giving up 19 ER in 26 1/3 innings. That is, until his most recent start, when he regained some of his magic, allowing just one unearned run on four hits through seven innings last Sunday at Arizona, walking three and striking out eight in a 5-1 Mets victory. 

Dickey is 14-for-21 on quality starts this year, and the Mets have won 16 of his starts. 

In his only outing this season against San Diego Dickey got a win, holding the Pads scoreless on three hits through 7 1/3 innings, walking one and whiffing 10. 

Richard is 11-for-22 on quality starts this year, but O for his last three. In his most recent outing Richard allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings last Sunday against the Marlins, and over his last three starts he's been tagged for 13 ER on 23 hits in 18 2/3 innings.

In his one start this year against the Mets back in May Richard gave up four runs on five hits, including a couple of homers, in six innings and took a loss. 

For the season San Diego is 8-14 in Richard's starts.

Friday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of Friday AM New York could be gotten at -130 at The Greek for Friday night's game, while San Diego was getting +129 at Matchbook. The Mets could also be played at +135 on the run line at several online baseball betting sites. 

Also, most shops were listing the total on Friday's game at 6.5, although some had it at six. 

These two teams are a combined 117-88 on the 'over/unders' this season, mainly because their totals are often listed among the lowest on the board.

Early betting action on Friday's game has seen almost 70 percent of play on the side come in on the Mets, while about 60 percent of MLB picks being placed on the total has come down on the 'over.' 

In the only previous meeting this season between these two teams, New York took three of four from SD at Citi Field back in May.   

Free MLB Pick 

The Mets have been driving us nuts recently, and Dickey, too. We just can't seem to get on the right side of either of them at the moment. We'd like to punt this game right off the board. But that's not what we're here for. So we'll go with Dickey and the Mets; you can back it or fade it, for whatever it's worth.