Jeff Suppan takes to the mound at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon set to keep his Milwaukee Brewers from being swept by Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs.
The Cubs will be seeking a sweep of the Brewers on Thursday afternoon in Game 3 of the series at Wrigley Field with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. (ET).
Chicago will send Carlos Zambrano to the bump with his 1-1 record and ERA of 11.38. Zambrano got shelled in his first outing of the season against the Braves, losing 16-5. In that start Carlos only managed to go 1 1/3 innings, giving up eight earned runs on six hits and two home runs.
He was able to bounce back in his second start versus Cincinnati winning 4-3 and giving up six hits and a homer over seven innings of work.
The Brewers will hang their hopes of a win on Jeff Suppan who will be making his first start of the season, although he has worked one inning of relief (no hits, walks or runs).
The Brewers appear to have a slight edge when facing right-handed starters averaging 5.0 runs per game with a batting average of .275 while the Cubs are only averaging 3.0 runs per game with a batting average of .197 so far this season.
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Milwaukee’s bullpen also has the edge with an ERA of 3.80 compared to Chicago’s 6.30.
A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to play on NL underdogs in this price range who have allowed 5.3 or more runs per game versus a team that has been outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game. These underdogs have posted a record of 35-20 the last five seasons for 63.6 percent winners and a profit of 30.1 units.
We have another system that says to play on NL road teams with an overall batting average of .255 or less facing a team whose bullpen has an ERA of 5.00 or worse and WHIP at 1.350 or better on the season. These road teams have posted a record of 110-74 for 59.8 percent winners and a profit of 44.5 units.
The Brewers are a perfect 5-0 as road underdogs in this price range the last five times to post and 8-1 in their last nine Game 3’s of a series. We will back the Brewers here as they surprise the Cubs and halt the sweep on Thursday afternoon at Wrigley Field in the Second City.
Projected Final Score: Milwaukee-4 Chicago-3
Free Pick: Brewers +160