What the latest news coming out of the Americn League, and how can MLB bettors use it to their advantage?
The trading deadline will come
and go today at 4:00 PM ET and the biggest news out there is the possibility
that Boston may be willing to trade Beckett for the right package of prospects.
This sort of news makes for fine and interesting print, but it is just not that
realistic that any team is going to deplete their farm system in exchange for
Beckett. The same can be said for the National League, where rumors are
centered in Philadelphia with Cliff Lee, Hunter Pence, and Victorino all
MLB has now learned that by
adding the second wild card berth, they have also put a bit of a head lock on
teams’ willingness to make trades ahead of the deadline. By having eight teams
now within 5 ½ games of each other competing for the two wild card berths, it has
made it far more difficult for teams to evaluate whether they are buyers or
sellers. Moreover, making moves is essentially to reach a goal to have one
playoff game against the other wild card winner and that game may not even be a
home game, which is important from a budget and marketing standpoint.
Last Week’s American League
In last week’s AL installment I
had recommended playing on Boston in their three-game series against the Yankees.
“I like taking Seattle against the
Yankees in the two remaining games Tuesday and Wednesday. I also like Boston on
the road in a huge three-game series against the Yankees beginning Friday.”
Last Tuesday, Seattle defeated
the Yankees 4-2 installed as -126 favorites. In Wednesday’s game, the Yankees
defeated the Mariners 5-2 and were installed as -160 MLB odds favorites. So, the Seattle
plays were a wash, with a 1-1 record.
The Boston series was a much
larger success although it started out very poorly. The Red Sox went into the
Bronx and lost 10-3 installed as +153 dogs last Friday. Then turned things
around with an impressive and gutsy 8-6 win where they were +157 dogs. The
finale saw the Red Sox win the series on Sunday Night Baseball in a 10-inning
3-2 win and were installed as +148 dogs. So, the three games playing on the Red
Sox produced a 2-1 record, but made 2.05 units per one unit wagered.
Overall, including the American
League report, the combined record for nine weeks of plays stands at 29-23 and
has won 5.74 units per one unit wagered. You can see firsthand that the power
of playing dogs that can consistently win is the ONLY way to give yourself the
best opportunity at making money in MLB wagering.
Net Money Leaders and
Opportunities for the Week Ahead
Oakland has gone wild and have
taken the top spot in the American League, having made 20.24 units per one unit
wagered this season. They rank second behind Pittsburgh in MLB. Baltimore is
second best in the AL having made 14.20 units per one unit wagered on each game
There is a significant drop-off with the Chicago White Sox in
third place, but making 8.00 units per one unit wagered on each game. The
Yankees are fourth having made 4.90 units per one unit wagered despite being 18
games over .500. Seattle is in fifth spot making just 0.75 units per one unit
wagered per game played. With just five AL teams showing profits, it clearly
reflects the parity that has been dominant in the AL with eleven teams (three
division leaders included) truly in playoff contention.
For this week, however, I am
going to look at the under achievers, the money burners if you will, and the
name that come up on my radar are the Boston Red Sox. Beckett is expected to
start tonight (Tuesday), and a trade for him is not likely between now and the
deadline at 4:00 PM ET. He will be going up against Detroit’s Justin Verlander
and there is already tremendous value with the line trading at Boston as a +118
Boston can look for a sweep of
the Tigers, Wednesday, when they send Cook to the hill to take on Porcello.
Starting Thursday, the Red Sox will have a four-game set against the Twins
where I expect them to take a minimum of three of the four games.