MLB Betting: American League Team Money Report

I have begun a weekly series of reports, generally released on Tuesdays, identifying teams that have reached unsustainable levels of performance and thus are about to embark on a series of average or below average performances.

Combined National and American League Play Against reports through four weeks now at 20-13 making 17.66 units per five units wagered.

For the past week, I had recommended fading the Yankees Tuesday and Wednesday against the Braves and then in their three game set against the Mets beginning Friday. 

However, the Mets-Yankees series was changed per the MLB with John Ryan thread, where I had the Yankees Sunday night. The dominant reason for this change was attributed to the ‘overbought’ condition of Mets' starter R.A. Dickey. This was not suggesting that Dickey is not an elite starter. He had posted five straight starts not allowing an earned run and had eight or more strikeouts in each of those five starts. His scoreless innings streak ended at 42 2.3 when the Yankees hit a sacrifice fly to score the first run in their 6-5 win Sunday. 

Last Tuesday, the Atlanta Braves defeated the Yankees 4-3 and were installed as +126 dogs. The Braves won again Wednesday defeating the Yankees 10-5 installed as +145 dogs. Friday, saw the Mets win 6-4 as +130 dogs, but failed Saturday, losing 4-3 to the Yankees and were +138 dogs. I then switched the game, as mentioned above, and the Yankees won in a 5-4 thriller and were installed as-130 favorites. 

So, the for the past week, the plays went 4-1 and made 4.01 units per one unit wagered. This is 1.01 units more than playing pick-em games and reflects the need to identify dogs that can win consistently at better than 50% to maximize opportunities and profits in the money line sport of MLB

Net Money Won American League Through games June 17, 2012

 Net Money Won American League Through games June 25, 2012

Baltimore widened its lead over the other American League teams in net money won. Baltimore has gone 5-5 over the last 10 games and were dogs in many of these wins. The Yankees were better at 7-3 over their last 10 games, but were favored in all of them. In a capsule, this shows how important it is to be playing on dogs and, take my word for it, but one of my best seasons ever in MLB in terms of units won, was when I had hit just 47.5% of the plays made. 

On occasion, there are tremendous opportunities to get down on three significant dogs of +140 or greater and then take those three teams to form a three-team round robin parlay. These plays are just 1-14 so far this season and generally hit only about 20 to 25% of the time, BUT when the three teams win, the payouts are monumental so be sure to check in each day for these opportunities and the daily dose of solid plays. 

Play against the Orioles Wednesday when they host the Angels in the second of a two-game set against the Angels when the Orioles Hammel takes on the Angels Weaver.