MLB Betting: American League Team Money Report

I have begun a weekly series of reports, generally released on Tuesdays, identifying teams that have reached unsustainable levels of performance and thus are about to embark on a series of average or below average performances.

Combined National and American League Play Against reports through four weeks now stand at 16-12, making 13.65 units per five units wagered. For the week past, I had incorrectly played against the Pirates in their three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals. Combined these six games went 2-4 and lost 3.84 units per one unit won. This brings the five week total to 18-16 and losing 5.55 units per five units wagered including the National League plays only.

Adding in the American League play, which was to go against Baltimore when Hammel was on the hill against the Los Angeles Angels saw a nice winner. The Angles hammered Hammel for eight earned runs in 3 ? innings in 13-1 win. Weaver got the win and improved to 8-1 on the season. The Angels were installed as -120 favorites. 

This brings the six week total for both leagues combined to 19-16 and losing 0.55 units per five units wagered including the National League plays only. Parity is not the goal, so let’s hope for a surge this week entering the All Star break week. 

The trading deadline is coming fast, and nearly all teams find themselves attempting to make moves to improve their teams now or for the future. With the two wild card teams, even more GM’s are in a bind to decide to be buyers or sellers and this will create a lot of action as the deadline approaches. 

I will be providing a detailed report for both the National League and American League later this week. The Phillies with Cole Hamels is arguably the most intriguing situation right now. Do they sign him to a 7-year deal that would approach $155 million, or do they make a blockbuster trade and get at least three top prospects in return? Sometimes ONE is far better and greater than THREE. 

Net Money Won American League Through games June 25, 2012

Net Money Won American League Through games July 3, 2012

Texas, with the best record in MLB, enters the Top-5 for the first time. You can see, though, how difficult it has been to play them and make money as they are installed as favorites in nearly every game they have played this season. When you lose just one favorite installed at -200, you then have to win two straight to break even. That means you can hit 67% winners and made zero units. 

That is the principal reason why a MLB handicapper must focus on the dogs as the foundation for their handicapping methodology in order to maximize profit potentials. There simply is no other way to make consistent profits in MLB. Winning percentage sometimes falls below 50%, but it is all about units won and by playing strong dogs in favorable situations you can win less than 50% of the games played and make a ton of cash. 

For the week ahead, I am recommending plays against the Orioles in their Tuesday and Wednesday road games in Seattle and then in the next four games at Los Angeles to face the surging Angels. I just got done telling you how important it is to play on DOGS as the foundation. In the case of this four game set against the Angels, playing them as favorites against a still overrated Orioles team still offers strong risk reward profiles. 

The White Sox have gained a two game lead over the Cleveland Indians in a weak American League Central division. They must face the Texas Rangers in a three game series starting Tuesday and then play a three game set against a pesky Toronto Blue Jays team. Playing the Rangers is akin to playing the Yankees these days and it always takes a lot of any club that faces these two powerhouse teams this season.