MLB Betting: Best Over/Under teams for bettors

So what makes a team a good regular 'OVER' bet, or a good steady 'UNDER' play? Let's try to figure that out by looking at what's happened in totals betting so far this season, and decide if these observations can help with our MLB picks.

When it comes to betting baseball totals many of us assume teams that bop the ball around, or teams with weak pitching staffs, tend to play a lot of 'OVERS,' while teams that struggle to score and/or own good pitching staffs tend to play a lot of 'UNDERS.’ But of course, 'assuming' things can get one in trouble, and in the case of betting baseball totals that is exactly what would happen.

Just because a team is scoring tons of runs, or giving up runs by the bushel, or plays its home games in a bandbox, does not mean they will play a lot of 'OVERS.' And just because a team owns a lights-out pitching staff and/or an anemic offensive attack does not mean it will play a lot of 'UNDERS.' Baseball odds makers certainly are aware of all this, and they set their totals accordingly.

For example, the New York Yankees lead the Majors in homers and play their home games in a hitters' park, but are 36-48 on the 'OVER/UNDERS' this season. Why? Mainly because the totals on Yankees games are regularly among the highest on the board.

The Best 'Over' Plays

The Philadelphia Phillies, a team that's played almost the entire season so far without two of its biggest bats, have trended further toward the 'OVERS' this season than any other team in baseball, at 53-31. That sounds counter-intuitive, but it looks like what has happened is that odds makers and baseball bettors have put too much into the absences of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Sportsbooks were regularly posting totals of eight and less on Phillies games, but Philly managed to average over four runs per game without its two big boppers. Combined with a staff ERA of 4.25 a considerable majority of Phillies games have been going 'over' on the totals.

Now, with Howard and Utley back in the lineup, our guess is that lines makers will begin to bump Phillies' totals upwards. In fact, in Philly's last series before the All-Star break, at home against Atlanta, the total on all three games was nine. Two of those three games stayed 'under,' and the third game 'pushed.' So we're thinking Philly might very well start trending back toward the 'UNDERS' during the second half of this season. 

The New York Mets have been the second-heaviest 'over' leaners in baseball so far this year, at 49-33. New York actually is averaging almost 4.6 RPG on offense, a pleasant surprise, after the Mets averaged 4.4 and 4.0 RPG the previous two seasons. Again, though, much of New York's record on the totals has to do with the low numbers posted on Mets games.  

The Milwaukee Brewers have gone 48-34 on the 'over/UNDERS' so far this year, thanks partly, we think, to the over-rated importance odds makers and bettors have put on Prince Fielder's departure, and the Brewers' bullpen, which has shown a tendency for splashing gasoline on just about any minor flare-up.

Finally, the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies are both 47-36 on the 'over/UNDERS' this season.

Bettors might want to note that in the rankings of bullpen ERAs, Colorado ranks 21^st, Houston 26^th, Milwaukee 27^th, Philadelphia 29^th and the Mets dead last.  

Teams Trending 'Under'

The Oakland A's, who are kind of a 'perfect storm' at the moment for 'UNDERS,' have leaned further that way than any other team in baseball so far, at 31-52. Oakland ranks 29^th in scoring, fourth in team ERA, and plays its home games in, shall we say, one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. The A's also happen to own the fourth-best bullpen ERA. The only thing we can see that would trend Oakland toward 'OVERS' would be for the odds makers to start dropping the totals on A's games to some really low numbers.

The LA Angels come next on our 'UNDERS' list at 35-49. Unlike other teams whose records on the totals, we believe, are based largely upon what odds makers think and do, the Angels' trending toward the 'UNDERS' is based largely on their early-season offensive woes. With the addition of Albert Pujols LA was expected to roll right from the start. Instead Sir Albert and the Angels struggled mightily with the sticks early on, and consequently played a lot of 'UNDERS.' Recently, though, Pujols has picked up his game, as we expected he would, and LA has played 12 'OVERS' in its last 18 games. That recent trend could very well continue after the break. 

Finally, the Cincinnati Reds, despite playing in the hitters' haven that is the Great American Ballpark, are 34-48 on the totals this year. Apparently the Reds are also having their totals 'over'-rated on a regular basis.

Others leaning toward the 'UNDERS' this season have been, as mentioned above, the Yankees at 36-48, the Tampa Bay Rays at 35-46 and the Kansas City Royals at 36-47. 

On a parting note we should recognize that every team mentioned above as trending toward the 'OVERS' this season plays in the National League, where games are supposedly low-scoring, while most of the teams trending 'under' play in the American League, where supposedly games are higher-scoring. This just underlines our contention that baseball totals are decided more by the oddsmakers than by the teams themselves.