MLB Betting Guide: Breaking Down Pitching Matchups

It seems to be the 'Year of the Pitcher' in the MLB the season, so how should bettors approach disecting pitching matchups? Let's tke a look at some of the top pitchers in the majors and discuss how to decide who has the edge.

I have been outlining and then detailing a form of handicapping I have coined 'Contrarian Wagering'. This is simply identifying a red hot team and starting pitcher and playing against them. The proven premise is that these teams have reached unsustainable performance levels and then augmented with a starting pitcher, who is posting stats and results far beyond his norm.

The records of these ‘play against’ false favorites have been quite good as the recent articles will show. This week, I want to delve deep into handicapping starting pitching and the methods I use to identifying overvalued starters, who are prone to a bad start. I also want to identify strong starting pitchers that are flying under the radar due to a team’s lack of run support.

This season, the hitting, in my opinion, is poor overall. Every team literally has a few AAA caliber players in their starting lineup, and as a result the pitching has been far better than in recent years.

There are 25 starting pitchers with ERA’s under 3.00 with the Braves Brandon Beachy leading with a 1.77 ERA. The following table shows every starting pitcher on this list and as you will note, there are several all star and highly visible names, while there are also some new names on the list, like Washington’s Gio Gonzalez and Arizona’s Wide Miley. 

Top 25 MLB Starters by ERA

Top-10 Net Money Won

As I have mentioned in my weekly Pitcher Report Card, playing against hot starters that have posed performance levels far beyond their averages offer solid wagering opportunities. Comparing the two lists, the names that are in common on both are Gio Gonzalez, Johnny Ceuto, and Cole Hamels, and Chris Cupano. Let’s now take a look at what has made these pitcher’s big money makers and which ones will continue to perform at these levels and be valid betting opportunities when they start.

Gio Gonzalez

He ranks third in the NL with seven wins, first with 79 strikeouts, second with a 2.04 ERA, third with a 0.94 WHIP, and third with a 0.875 win percentage. Moreover, 80% of his starts have been quality starts so it makes it somewhat difficult to bet against him when only 20% of his starts are shaky and below average relative to his elite standards.

He has won five straight decisions and seven of his last eight after starting the season with two straight no decisions. The public believes and that he should soon be 14-4 as he started out 7-2 for his first 10 games. Now, that is not an exact science, but it is an example of how the public will be adding him to their baseball picks in his next start against the Braves and Brandon Beachy this Saturday, June 2. 

So, I will elect to suggest a 5* graded play on Atlanta and Beachy, who you may see is on top of the pitcher ERA MLB rankings. 

Brandon Beachy

At just 25-years old, the Braves organization are once again showing how well their scouting and farm systems are at finding talent and then developing them into All Star pitchers. Realistically, it will be difficult for him to keep the ERA under 2.00 for the entire season. Yet, for this start against the Washington Nationals and their weak offense, you can trust to him to throw at minimum another quality start. 

Beachy is excellent at getting ahead in the counts and forcing the hitter to hit his offering, which often times may not even be a strike. In 216 at bats, he has had 130 0-1 counts, and after establishing the first pitch strike batters are hitting just .154. After 1-0 counts many starters become far more hittable, but not Beachy. Batters are hitting just .186 after a 1-0 count. Moreover, he has had just 29 2-0 counts, and even in these hitter friendly counts, batters are hitting just .172. 

He is a right-handed pitcher, so the right-handed batters do fare better than left-handed ones. Beachy has allowed a .154 batting average when facing left-handed batters spanning 104 at-bats this season. He has allowed a .205 batting average when facing right-handed batters spanning 132 at-bats this season.

Cole Hamels

Hamels is certainly nowhere close to being a fade opportunity, and if anything he is a play-on until further notice. His next start is home versus the Marlins set to start at 4:05 PM ET, Saturday June 2.

He has been a Philly since being drafted in the first round, 17th overall, in 2002. He was the NLCS MVP and then the World Series MVP in 2008. He has been extremely consistent and effective against both left and right-handed batters, allowing a .227 batting average to lefties and a .222 batting average to righties. This kind of consistency projects very well for continued success at the MLB level. 

Of the 222 at-bats faced, he has thrown strike one in 131 of them, and after an 0-1 count batters are hitting just .214. Here again lies the consistency he has shown for years and why you can trust him for additional wager winners and your fantasy teams. He has allowed a .220 batting average after a 1-0 count and has had just 26 2-0 counts and six 3-0 counts this season. 

If you can watch the game, you will witness one of the best left-handed changeups in MLB. His change is devastating and he will throw it to both types of hitters. He throws the change 23% of all pitches and will deliver it 19% of all first pitch offerings. Batters are hitting just .181 on that pitch.

Take Philadelphia and Hamels Saturday for a 5* graded play.