In last week’s article, I encouraged tracking major team statistics and plotting them graphically and then then overlaying a moving average of 3-days and 14-days. This clearly shows teams ebb and flow around their average performance levels.
The same can be said by plotting
starting pitchers combined ERA, bullpen ERA, and others. This is an excellent
starting point to a sound technical statistical handicapping methodology. There
obviously needs to be more applied to this starting point.
Systems and their use
We have all seen touts advertise
Game of the Year releases based on a 90% winning system that has had just one
loss in the past five years. Many of you have probably bought them and
hopefully won with those plays. Unfortunately, using systems alone as a
handicapping tool provides us with little more than a history lesson of specific criteria
that make up the system.
It is rare that any system over
the course of fifteen years can make more than 100 units per one unit wagered. When
one does, you have the ingredients that have stood the test of time and the
evolution of the sport too. However, there is more than meets the eye.
Supporting ‘century’ systems
In today’s game between the
Washington Nationals and the Colorado Rockies, there are multiple systems that
support a play on both teams. How do you decide which system is more valid than
the other in this specific one game situation? No one system can win every
game, and clearly in the systems that follow, one of them is going to lose. I
will first present the systems and then identify the qualities of each one.
Supporting System on Colorado
This system, which backs
Colorado, has produced a 197-247 record for just 44.4% winners, but has made a
whopping 104.7 units since 1997. The average play has been a +179 dog play and
has obviously been validated by the fifteen years of profits. Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or
more that is starting a pitcher who gave up less than two earned runs in his
last two outings and is now facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher
sporting an ERA that is greater than 7.00 over his last five starts.
qualifiers show that Washington starter Edwin Jackson allowed one and two
earned runs respectively in this last two starts. Rockies starter Josh Outman,
has been rocked over his last several starts posting an ERA of 9.00 and a 1.643
WHIP over his last three starts and an 8.41 ERA over his last five starts.
is one of the contrarian systems that clearly reflect the apparent randomness
inherent in MLB, but also reflects how these are powerful money making
opportunities to exploit.
MLB odds makers currently have the Nationals as -155 favorites. The total has risen slightly to 11.5
A Second System
A second supporting system shows
a more impressive winning percentage with a 57-37 record and 61% winners since
on home dogs with a money line of +125 or more and with an overused bullpen
that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and stranding 6.9 or less runners
on base per game on the season. This system has used an impressive +147 average
dog play and has made 46.6 units per one unit wagered.
This is certainly the case with
the Rockies bullpen being overworked as the starting pitching ranks among the
worst in baseball in several of the major statistical categories. The system
again shows, why an obvious play on a first play team can many times be a huge
bear trap and loss of money.
I encourage you to track the
systems that play on significant dogs of +150 and greater and ones that have
made over 100 units over a 15-year span. I use these systems to SUPPORT the
graded play produced by the simulator and often times the criteria of the
system match up with the detailed projections from the simulator.
In this case take a 5* play on the Colorado