MLB Betting Guide: When is a Team Overvalued?

Everyone loves the 'Hot Team', but as MLB bettors, should we also be so eager to jump on the bandwagon? This week let's duscuss how to determine when a team has become overvalued, and how we can use this to our advantage.

There have been changes to the Top-10 Team Money Line winnings in the past two days. Baltimore has remained on top of the standings, but have lost two games entering Thursday’s double header against Texas. On a side note, I have baltimore graded as 10* Titans in both ends of that double-header, so be sure to check out that research and report showing you why I think baltimore will sweep the double header.

As of the report produced Tuesday May 7, these top-10 teams have made a combined 6,628 units per 100 units wagered on each game involving these teams. As of May 9, these top-10 teams have increased their winnings modestly to 6,689 units per 100 units wagered for each game played.

Breaking this down to TOP-5 teams we see that on May 7, these teams made a combined 4,398 units per 100 units wagered. After two more days of games, these Top-5 teams have produced a combined profit of 4394 units per 100 units wagered for each game played.

If I plotted this data like a corporate stock offering, the profits of these baskets of teams would show a significant rise, but now in the first two weeks of May a flattening of the amounts gained. This flattening of profits shows that the teams in this basket are beginning to reach over valued status. I still think we are about a week away from officially playing against the Top-5 basket of teams, but will continue to show and track how they the net money gained has changed in the articles for Tuesday and next Thursday.

The point of all this is provide you with a simple way to to make money with your MLB picks. By having five teams in a basket of plays each day you are akin to buying a mutual fund or an ETF in today’s current financial markets. There is no doubt a strong connection between the two and I know over time you will see this occur with MLB wagering. 

If a team falls out of the Top-5, then the new entrant is added to the list of ‘bet against’ and the other dropped from play. So, I will provide any changes to this list on a daily basis at the MLB Betting with John Ryan thread. moreover, the thread is an excellent resource to exchange handicapping ideas, thoughts, and techniques with other well versed handicappers in their own right. 

To avoid all confusion between Titan plays released on the thread and these plays, I will segregate them accordingly. So, the record keeping will show two independent records with one being the Titan 5*, 10*, and 20* rated plays and these plays, which will be called the Team Basket of Fades. I will also provide a third sub record of the Team Basket combining the Starting Pitchers list of fades. 

The Starting Pitcher list will be a list of the Top-5 money earners and when combined with winning record teams have a strong tendency to have inflated lines, which we can surely benefit. In years past, these starters and teams get a very strong following from public bettors. The lines makers know this, of course, and adjust the line accordingly in their favor. In summary, this type of betting I have coined Contrarian Style Wagers and they have shown strong results. 

I highly recommend not jumping in on this handicapping technique just yet for many reasons. Sometimes the newness and apparent money making opportunities gets us far too ‘greedy’ and we blindly jump into the water not knowing there were alligators in there before jumping. So, give me a week or two for you to learn more about the contrarian psychology and fading heard mentalities. Always remember the great Gordon Gecko in the movie Wall Street where he stated “Bulls make money, Bears make money, and Pigs... well, they get slaughetered”

Major League Baseball Money Statistics Through May 7

Team Money Won Through Games of May 9