MLB Betting: MLB Underdog Picks of the Day

After a spectacular comeback by the San Diego Padres off the bat of Chase Headley, this brings my record of underdog picks to 11-8. I've been hot with the Padres the last couple of days, nailing a moneyline as a slight favorite, a +175 runline, and now a slightle elusive underdog pick at +130.

Laying no juice

Obviously, picking underdogs depends upon their odds, you can have a sub .500 record and still be in the green easily. I've hit some significant underdogs, landing a major profit, and soon, I'll tally up the units for you to get a better perspective of what I'm talking about. However, there's no time to waste as my motto is "strike while the iron is hot" I'm playing with a significant amount of house money, so let's see if we can keep building the profit.

San Diego Padres (50-64) at Pittsburgh Pirates (63-49) -  Pittsburgh -165, total 8

"Cut to the Chase"

The Padres are the big underdogs once again but are on a 5 game winning streak since defating the Pirates 9-8 on Friday night. Just as I described in my Friday article, third baseman Chase Headley is "The Head of the Class" as he single-handedly defeated the Pirates with a homer in a 6 run San Diego 5th inning and a 2 run blast in the 7th inning to give the Padres the lead and eventual win. I won't repeat the statistics that I gave for you yesterday but it's evident that Chase Headley is a consistent contributor and is feeling it. He had a total of 5 RBI's on Friday night.

Most of the Padres offense come's from the top half of their lineup and they'll have to raise the bar as they're facing one of the hottest pitchers in the majors in A.J. Burnett.

Comeback player of the year?

Pirates starter A.J. Burnett has gone from a very good pitcher in Toronto to a huge contractual mistake in New York to one of the biggest surprises in baseball at Pittsburgh.

In order to win as the underdog in Saturday's game, the Padres will have to beat a pitcher that's at the top of his game in the form of Burnett. On the season, Burnett is an eye popping 14-3 with a 3.19 ERA and has held opposing batters to a .229 BA this season.

A.J. Burnett has excelled in his last 4 starts, pitching 32 2/3 innings and giving up just 5 earned runs and 16 hits while going a flawless 4-0. The Padres have their work cut out for them but from watching the Yankees on a regular basis during the past few years, I still believe this is the same A.J. Burnett that was better at throwing celebratory pies than throwing wins. No doubt that he is a confident man but he's not a Jered Weaver, he can get knocked around at any time.

Burnett faces off against a pitcher that I watched closely in his last outing called Jason Marquis (7-10, 5.47). I'm a firm believer that Marquis is better than his record an ERA indicates and this might not be shown in the current odds. Despite giving up 3 runs and 4 hits in 6 1/3 innings in his last game, a victory against the Mets, I actually thought Marquis looked dominant. He is a lifetime 12-7 with a 3.92 ERA against the Pirates. This isn't a slouch going up against Pittsburgh, this is a pitcher that's capable of putting up a quality performance, especially with the momentum that the Padres currently carry. To make things even more interesting, Burnett is a lifetime 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA in 5 career starts against the Padres. 

Consider Jason Marquis to keep San Diego in contention when making your MLB Picks, the outcome of this game will be decided on how effective Burnett is against their offense. If the ball goes to the bullpen relatively early, I think that it enhance's San Diego's chances of winning.

6 in a row?

I'm going to go with the San Diego Padres as a heavy underdog here. They're playing some of the best baseball of the season. Just as in Friday's game, no lead is safe as the San Diegans are capable of changing a game around in one inning.

Although not much negative could be said about A.J. Burnett, his team will be lacking confidence from Friday and this is a pitcher that can easily be phased if he faces a bit of adversity. I think that he'll face some adversity Saturday at 7:05 pm ET when he faces a team with major momentum in San Diego. Look for the Padres to pull off the big upset.

Pick- San Diego +155