a spectacular comeback by the San Diego Padres off the bat of Chase Headley,
this brings my record of underdog picks to 11-8. I've been hot with the Padres
the last couple of days, nailing a moneyline as a slight favorite, a +175
runline, and now a slightle elusive underdog pick at +130.
picking underdogs depends upon their odds, you can have a sub .500 record and
still be in the green easily. I've
hit some significant underdogs, landing a major profit, and soon, I'll tally up
the units for you to get a better perspective of what I'm talking about.
However, there's no time to waste as my motto is "strike while the iron is
hot" I'm playing with a significant amount of house money, so let's see if
we can keep building the profit.
take a look at Saturday's slate of games and immediately know what I'm going to
do. Let's go right back to Pittsburgh and make another pick.
Diego Padres (50-64) at Pittsburgh Pirates (63-49) - Pittsburgh -165,
to the Chase"
Padres are the big underdogs once again but are on a 5 game winning streak since defating the Pirates 9-8 on Friday night. Just as I described in my Friday
article, third baseman Chase Headley is "The Head of the Class" as he
single-handedly defeated the Pirates with a homer in a 6 run San Diego 5th
inning and a 2 run blast in the 7th inning to give the Padres the lead and
eventual win. I won't repeat the statistics that I gave for you yesterday but
it's evident that Chase Headley is a consistent contributor and is feeling it.
He had a total of 5 RBI's on Friday night.
of the Padres offense come's from the top half of their lineup and they'll have
to raise the bar as they're facing one of the hottest pitchers in the majors in
player of the year?
starter A.J. Burnett has gone from a very good pitcher in Toronto to a huge
contractual mistake in New York to one of the biggest surprises in baseball at
order to win as the underdog in Saturday's game, the Padres will have to beat a
pitcher that's at the top of his game in the form of Burnett. On the season,
Burnett is an eye popping 14-3 with a 3.19 ERA and has held opposing batters to
a .229 BA this season.
Burnett has excelled in his last 4 starts, pitching 32 2/3 innings and giving
up just 5 earned runs and 16 hits while going a flawless 4-0. The Padres have
their work cut out for them but from watching the Yankees on a regular basis
during the past few years, I still believe this is the same A.J. Burnett that
was better at throwing celebratory pies than throwing wins. No
doubt that he is a confident man but he's not a Jered Weaver, he can get
knocked around at any time.
faces off against a pitcher that I watched closely in his last outing called
Jason Marquis (7-10, 5.47). I'm a firm believer that Marquis is better than his
record an ERA indicates and this might not be shown in the current odds. Despite giving up 3 runs and 4 hits in 6 1/3
innings in his last game, a victory against the Mets, I actually thought
Marquis looked dominant. He is a lifetime 12-7 with a 3.92 ERA against the Pirates. This isn't a slouch
going up against Pittsburgh, this is a pitcher that's capable of putting up a
quality performance, especially with the momentum that the Padres currently
carry. To make things even more interesting, Burnett is a lifetime 1-4 with a
4.54 ERA in 5 career starts against the Padres.
Consider Jason Marquis to keep San Diego in contention when making your MLB Picks, the outcome of this game
will be decided on how effective Burnett is against their offense. If the
ball goes to the bullpen relatively early, I think that it enhance's San Diego's
chances of winning.
in a row?
going to go with the San Diego Padres as a heavy underdog here. They're playing
some of the best baseball of the season. Just as in Friday's game, no lead is
safe as the San Diegans are capable of changing a game around in one inning.
not much negative could be said about A.J. Burnett, his team will be lacking
confidence from Friday and this is a pitcher that can easily be phased if he
faces a bit of adversity. I think that he'll face some adversity Saturday at
7:05 pm ET when he faces a team with major momentum in San Diego. Look for the
Padres to pull off the big upset.
Pick- San Diego +155