MLB Betting: National League Team Money Report

I have begun a weekly series that is released on Tuesdays and with this one representing the sixth installment. These reports focus on identifying teams that have reached unsustainable levels of performance and are about to embark on a series of average or below average performances.

Combined National and American League Play Against reports through four weeks now at 16-12 making 13.65 units per five units wagered.

We have seen through the years of MLB seasons that even the best teams go through strong dominated winning streaks and will also have some very dark times, where the media sometimes attacks managers and players alike for the unacceptable performances. 

Last week, there were no qualifying National League plays from the ‘overbought’ criteria and contrarian methodology. Interesting to note that Baltimore leads the MLB list in net money won, but five of the next six in the Top-10 rankings come from the National league as shown below in the June 25th table.

 Net Money Won Through Games of June 18, 2012

Net Money Won Through Games of June 25, 2012

Despite the National League taking on five of the top-7 spots in the overall money earned rankings, there are just two teams that I feel warrant a contrarian approach for the week ahead. Pittsburgh was throttled by the Phillies in game one of their four-game Pennsylvania series. The Pirates committed four errors and had numerous throwing miscues that did not lead to errors, but were reflective of poor defensive execution. Moreover, they scored just three runs off of Joe Blanton, who had given up three home runs to the Rockies in his last start. 

I think the Pirates are a fade over the next week. It is just great that they are doing so well with the ‘Money Ball’ budget and salaries, but their staying power is going to be severely tested over the next week. They play three more games against the Phillies, who will have five-time all star Chase Utley back in the lineup Wednesday night. 

After these three games, the Pirates will face St. Louis for three games. After the Cardinals series, they will have a four game series with Houston, which on paper is to their favor, but then the surging San Francisco Giants come to town for a three game set. The All Star break will then occur, which will be a much needed break for many teams in MLB.