MLB Betting: National League Team Money Report

This is the seventh installment of a weekly series, released on Tuesdays, that identifies NL teams reaching unsustainable performance levels and thus about to embark on a series of average or below average performances.

The trading deadline is coming fast and nearly all teams find themselves attempting to make moves to improve their teams now or for the future. With the two wild card teams, even more GM’s are in a bind to decide to be buyers or sellers and this will create a lot of action as the deadline approaches. 

I will be providing a detailed report for both the National League and American League later this week. The Phillies, with Cole Hamels is arguably the most intriguing situation right now. Do they sign him to a 7-year deal that would approach $155 million or do they make a blockbuster trade and get at least three top prospects in return. Sometimes ONE is far better and greater than THREE. 

Combined National and American League Play Against reports through four weeks now at 16-12 making 13.65 units per five units wagered. For the week past, I had incorrectly played against the Pirates in their three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals. Combined these six games went 2-4 and lost 3.84 units per one unit won. This brings the five week total to 18-16 and losing 5.55 units per five units wagered. Let’s try to better this week. 

Net Money Won Through Games of June 25, 2012

The ‘good feel story’ Pittsburgh Pirates have taken over the Baltimore Orioles for the top spot in money won in MLB. They certainly did damage to my contrarian methodology and I have to admit I may have underestimated the team chemistry of the Pirates. Truly, this may be the first winning record season for them since 1992. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have fallen out of the top five and have also lost their lead to the surging San Francisco Giants in the National League West division. They are nearing a ‘play on’ situation given their horrid play. That is the contrarian way. Buy a stock that has strong fundamentals that the majority of the public and Wall Street analysts hate. In the case of sports, get down on a beaten up team that does have a winning record and plays fundamentally sound games. 

So, for the first time this season, I am recommending to play on the Los Angeles Dodgers in games Tuesday through Sunday. Please check the MLB with John Ryan thread for any changes or omissions as the week moves on. These games will start Tuesday with the second game of the three game series home versus the Cincinnati Reds and then conclude with four games against the Arizona Diamondbacks. I feel strongly that they will go at least 4-2 over this stretch.

The last three games of the Arizona series will have Kershaw (6-4), Billingsley (4-8), and Capuano (9-3) starting for the Dodgers.

The set of ‘play against’ games will be targeting the Mets in their three-game home series against the desperate Philadelphia Phillies. The third game is the one I feel is most attractive taking the Phillies with Cole Hamels against the Mets and R.A. Dickey. Again, check in with the thread for further updates and baseball picks as it is not out of the realm of possibility that Hamels could be pitching on another team come Thursday.