MLB Betting: National League Team Report

NL play against now at 13-8 making 4.54 units per one unit wagered. I have begun a weekly series that focuses on identifying teams that have reached unsustainable levels of performance and are about to embark on a series of average or below average performances.

We have seen through all the years of MLB that even the best teams go through very strong dominated winning streaks and will also have some very dark times. The weaker teams will go through their own brief winning streaks, but it is certainly a red flag to begin facing a losing record team that suddenly gets on a four or more game winning streak. These are very broad statements and not specific enough to warrant any recommended plays. 

For the editions released so far, we have produced a 7-5 record, making 1.95 units per one unit wagered. Let’s quickly review the results of last week’s games. 

The Mets were a play against in the three game series against Washington beginning last Tuesday. In the first game, the Mets lost 7-6 in 12 innings with Washington installed as a -154 favorite. In Game 2, Washington defeated the Mets 5-3 and were installed as -151 favorites. The Game 3 finale saw the Mets salvage a 3-1 win and were installed as -119 favorites. 

The next three game set was against the city rival NY Yankees, and you could see things were not going to go well for them in the subway series. Coming off his incredible 134 pitch no-hitter and an extra two days of rest, Santana had a horrid outing, losing 9-1 Friday. NY was installed as -149 favorites. In Game 2 , the Yankees won 4-2 installed as -170 favorites. In Game 3, the Yankees completed the sweep, winning 5-4 and were installed as -181 favorites. 

In the American League edition of this report, I had three ‘play againsts’ with the Red Sox, and these results were shockingly poor. For the three games, the record was 1-2 and lost 2.41 units per one unit wagered. 

So, for the week past, the recommended plays went 7-3 and made 2.59 units per one unit wagered. For the life of the series presented, the record now is 14-8 making 4.54 units per one unit wagered. 

The charts below show the change in the MLB NL rankings for the games concluded through Monday June 11, 2012. 

Net Money Won Through Games of May 22, 2012

Net Money Won Through Games of June 12, 2012

Over the last two weeks, the rankings have changed significantly with the the top-ranked Mets falling precipitously out of the Top-5 National League rankings given their recent losing slide. The Dodgers have taken over the top spot and sport the best winning percentage in MLB with a 39-23 record and 62.9% win percentage. I don’t see them as a fade at all as they continue to play well and win games without Matt Kemp. 

San Francisco has risen up the charts in recent weeks and now sit at No. 2 in this week’s chart. They have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and are in second place in the National league West trailing the Dodgers by 4 ½ games. I do see them as a fade though beginning Friday in their three-game series against Seattle. In game 1 Seattle is scheduled to start Vargas (7-5), in game 2 Beavan (3-6), and then the final will be Felix hernandez (4-4).

I recommend 5* plays on each of these games taking the Seattle Mariners.