The Astros may be hot whole the Dodgers are not, but this looks like a very cheap price for Hiroki Kuroda, who has looked unhittable over the past month. Go Dodger Blue in this spot.
Even as late as the All-Star break, the Los Angles Dodgers were thought to be contenders to win the National League West while the Houston Astros were generally considered to be the worst team in the National League.
The bookmakers rate this game as a toss up, with the betting odds set at -110 for both teams, which should give you an indication of just how much has changed over the past two months.
In fact, if the 67-73 Astros can beat the 69-72 Dodgers tonight, these clubs would actually be tied in the loss column. All of that said, Houston is approaching overvalued status at this Pick’em price, considering that the Dodgers have probably their hottest pitcher on the mound tonight in Hiroki Kuroda.
Kuroda has five Quality Starts in his last six starts, but that does not tell the entire story as he has become almost unhittable lately. Over those six starts, Kuroda has allowed a total of 27 hits in 43.2 innings, and if we toss the lone non-quality effort where he allowed seven hits in seven innings, he only allowed 20 hits in 36.2 innings in the other five efforts with nine walks, which translates to a 0.79 WHIP.
He is also a perfect four for four in Quality Starts vs. Houston in his career, with the latest outing coming back in May, and he is probably better now than he has been at any other point in his Dodgers career.
Now J.A. Happ is also having a fine year, albeit with far fewer starts than Kuroda, as he is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 11 starts, showing why the Astros wanted him as part of the Roy Oswalt trade. As well as Happ has pitched, he does not figure to get much run support tonight considering Kuroda’s current form.
If someone had told you a month a ago that you can get the Dodgers at this price vs. the Astros with Kuroda on the hill, you probably would have jumped at the chance! Yes, the teams are heading in opposite directions, but the Dodgers appear to hold all the value here.
Free Play: Dodgers -110