The Padres have lost 10 straight games as they have not hit a lick, and while that should continue tonight, they also have one of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound. Go ‘under’.
The San Diego Padres have now become the second team in Major League history to lose 10 straight games while being in first place, and with an anemic offense being the main reason, we look for an ‘under’ at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday.
The bookmakers installed a total of 6½ for this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -120.
Sure, that seems like a low total, especially at a favorite’s price. However, consider that the Padres are averaging 2.30 runs per game during their losing streak while batting a woeful .206 vs. right-handed pitching, with the ‘under’ going 7-3. This ‘under’ is also helped by the fact that the Dodgers are not exactly scalding the ball themselves, averaging 3.70 runs in their last 10 games, and each team has a competent starter on the mound.
In fact, Mat Latos of San Diego is one of the best pitchers in the National League, and unlike his team, Latos has remained hot. He is 13-5 for the season and he leads the Major Leagues in both ERA (2.25) and WHIP (0.98), and he also has 160 strikeouts vs. 43 walks in 155.2 innings. He has amazingly allowed two runs or less in 14 consecutive starts, and since allowing four runs at Colorado in his very first start of the year, Latos has allowed three runs or less in 23 of 24 starts!
Now, Vicente Padilla of the Dodgers has tailed off as of late, but he is still 6-4 with a 3.96 ERA and an excellent 1.07 WHIP for the season. He tossed a masterpiece that last time he faced the Padres, hurling a Complete Game two-hit shutout at Dodger Stadium last month with nine strikeouts, and he also allowed just two runs in his only other start against San Diego this year. We see no reason why he can’t go to three for three in quality efforts vs. the Pads in 2010.
Look for the San Diego bats to remain quiet and for Latos to maintain his form, meaning that both teams should struggle to score three runs apiece.
Free Play: Dodgers, Padres Under 6½ (-120)