MLB Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies over 96 wins

The Phillies have made some the news making earth shaking player moves in recent years, but this past off-season marks one of the few years during their five year run as National League East divisional champs, where the moves were a bit muted. This was mostly attributed to finances of the salary cap preventing any significant changes to the team in the free agency period. Was any change really necessary though? I think not.

Phillies Starting Rotation

One of the keys to the Phillies five year span of dominating the NL East and getting to two World Series and winning one is the fact that they have excellent starting pitching and have avoided injuries at the top of the rotation. Roy Halladay has a legendary work ethic that has minimized any chance for injury and this has transcend the rest of the rotation, bullpen, and position players.

After throwing a no-hitter in his first playoff start against the Reds, he turned down television appearance with David Letterman, Jay Leno, and Good Morning America. The large majority of players would have jumped at those opportunities, but Halladay wanted no distractions for his team and did not want to disrupt his five-day preparation schedule between starts. No other team has that kind of leadership and it will again be the dominant reason the Phillies win their sixth straight NL East title. 

The Phillies were not without significant injuries however, having Joe Blanton miss all but eight starts along with three relief appearances. The Phillies were also without one of the four aces, as Roy Oswalt was also out for an extended period of time with chronic back problems. Combined, Oswalt and Blanton missed 33 starts, and normally that would be a disaster for any team contending for a title. On the Phillies, though, the top-3 starters, in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, pitched 682 ? innings with an ERA just below 3.00 last season.

The farm system is quite deep as well. Vance Worley filled in for the loss of Blanton and was a rookie of the year candidate, posting a 3.01 ERA, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per start, and just 3.1 walks per nine innings in 131 2/3 innings of work. Vance will be back for his sophomore and season and General Manager Ruben Amaro wasted no time in signing the reliable and versatile Kyle Kendrick to a $3.59 million contract, in case Worley suffers any sort of sophomore slump. 

I have only discussed starting pitching to this point and let’s not overlook the significant injuries to position starters in Jimmy Rollins, Chase Outlay, and Ryan Howard. Again, most teams would be in real trouble losing any one of those three type of all-star players, but it was the health of the starting rotation and excellent bullpen relief that kept the Phillies winning and not even missing one stride. 

The Phillies Bullpen

The Phillies bullpen flew largely in the shadows of the starting rotation, but two young hurlers contributed mightily to the Phillies strong success at the end of games. Moreover, the Phillies did sign Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million contract knowing they were more than likely going to lose Madson. Although Pabelbon’s stats were quite strong in 2011, they did fall modestly short of former Phillies closer Ryan Madson. Yet, Amaro anticipated the potential hole and worked his magic to land a great closer. 

Left-handed reliever and setup man, Antonio Bastardo, was one of the most dominant in all of baseball. He stranded 28 of the 32 runners on base he inherited and posted a solid 2.64 ERA and struck out 10.9 batters-per-nine-innings-pitched in 2011. He was complimented by the 25-year old, right-handed throwing Michael States. He posted a 3.64 ERA and recorded 8.4 strikeouts-per-nine-innings pitched in 2011.

If that is not enough, the Phillies essentially ‘stole’ Dontrelle Willis, who is 30-years young and was second in the Cy Young voting seven years ago. He will certainly not be a starter, but will be used as a lefty specialist following days that Bastardo has pitched. Willis is still devastating against left-handed batters allowing a .200 batting average and a paltry .288 slugging percentage.

The bottom line is the Phillies are the team to beat and if they can remain healthy on the offensive end, will win 100 or more games again this season. So, I expect the ‘wins’ betting line to come out somewhere around 96 games given the vast improvement that all teams, but the New York Mets, have made in the NL East.

When it comes to MLB betting, I like the ‘over’ with a ‘wins’ total of 96 games or less, and will provide additional analysis once the MLB odds are posted.