The Cubs suddenly awoke in Cincinnati Friday night, routing the Reds 14-7. That still leaves Chicago at just 6-10 on the road, so look for the Reds to bounce back with Harang tonight.
The Cincinnati Reds will be seeking a little revenge on Saturday for the 14-7 beat down they took at the hands of the Chicago Cubs on Friday night in the Queen City.
The Cubs are 6-10 on the road this season averaging 3.7 runs per game with a batting average of .247. Chicago’s bullpen has also struggled away from the Second City with an ERA of 5.36 during the 2010 campaign. Cincinnati is 8-7 at home this season averaging 4.5 runs per game with a batting average of .256.
Both teams will send starters to the bump that are having a tough season to date the Cubs will send Tom Gorzelanny who is 1-3 with an ERA of 2.48 and the Reds will send Aaron Harang to the hill with his 1-4 record and ERA of 6.68.
Even though Harang has struggled this season we look for the Reds to bounce back from that embarrassing loss to the Cubs on Friday night and grab a game two victory in this situation. We also find solid technical support for the home team on Saturday night.
The Cubs are 3-11 (-10.3 Units) in road games in May games the last two seasons, 4-10 (-9.8 Units) versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season, 1-7 (-8.5 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game this season, 8-17 (-14.2 Units) in road games versus an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons and 0-5 (-8.5 Units) with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games this season.
The Reds are 49-33 (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record the last two seasons and 23-8 (+14.6 Units) in home games in May games over the last 3 seasons. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to Play against MLB NL road teams with a line in the current price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better during the current season, with a team OBP of .340 or better.
Playing against these teams has produced a record of 36-12 for 75 percent winners and a profit of +24.5 units over the last five seasons. Our TPR Index favors the Reds in this situation by 1.82 runs over the Cubs on Saturday and our Math Model also favors the boys from the Queen City by 1.07 runs.
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The combination of these factors along with the fact we are backing a home underdog in a revenge situation should translate into an easy winner on Saturday night in Cincinnati.
Projected Forecast: Cincinnati Reds 4 Chicago Cubs 3
Free Pick:
Reds +105