MLB Betting Preview: Cubs vs. Mets

Chicago grabbed the opener Friday night, slamming Mets starter Johan Santana for seven runs on 13 hits in less than five innings, then holding on for an 8-7 victory. The Cubbies won as +160 underdogs on the MLB betting line, and the game cruised 'over' its total of 7.5.

These two teams have split the first two games of this series, Chicago winning 8-7 Friday night and New York winning 3-1 Saturday. 

So New York, at 46-39, still sits 4.5 games behind first-place Washington in the NL East. 

Chicago, meanwhile, is now 20 games under .500 at 32-52. 

Ryan Dempster (3-3, 2.11) will come off the DL to start Sunday for the Cubs against lefty Jon Niese (7-3, 3.35) for the Mets. 

Dempster, who was on the DL because of a sore right lat muscle, is having one of those hard-luck seasons. He's a very solid nine-for-12 in quality starts, but Chicago is only 5-7 in games he's started. In fact, the Cubs have lost six games in which Dempster has allowed two or fewer runs. 

Just before he went on the DL, Dempster held Boston scoreless through seven innings, Minnesota scoreless through eight innings and Milwaukee scoreless through seven innings. So, he carries a 22-inning scoreless streak into Sunday. 

Dempster started one game vs. the Mets last year and picked up a win, giving up just one run on seven hits in seven innings. 

Dempster is likely to be held to a pitch count Sunday, which might mean an early appearance by the Cubs bullpen, which might not be good news, considering the Chicago pen ranks 26^th among all pens with a 4.54 ERA. 

Niese, meanwhile, is nine-for-16 on quality starts this season, and New York is 9-7 in games he's started. Most recently, he held Philly to one run on three hits through eight innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just four ER in 21 1/3 innings. 

Two starts ago Niese limited the Cubs to one run in seven innings and got a little run support as the Mets won 17-1 at Wrigley. 

As of early Sunday morning, the best baseballs odds we could find on New York was the -143 offered at Bookmaker, while Chicago could be gotten at +141 at The Greek. 

The Mets are also getting +150 giving the run and a half on the run line at several baseball betting outlets. 

And most online sportsbooks are listing the total on Sunday's game at 7.5. 

Early action on this game has seen a 70/30 split come in on New York, and 60 percent of the early play on the total has come down on the 'under.' 

Free MLB Pick for Sunday 

We're having a hard time getting on the right side of this series. We took the Mets Friday, then the Cubs Saturday, and got slapped twice. As for Sunday we're fans of Dempster, but we just can't convince ourselves to take him his first time back from the DL. So, we'll go with the Mets for our free MLB pick.

So the Cubs have won eight of their last 11 games to get to 32-51.

The Mets, meanwhile, at 45-39, now trail first-place Washington by 4.5 games in the NL East.

Dillon Gee (5-7, 4.34) gets the call Saturday (4:10 Eastern, WGN) for New York while Jeff Samardzija (6-7, 4.77) will go for Chicago.

Gee is nine-for-16 on quality starts this year, but New York is only 6-10 in his starts. Most recently, Gee allowed two earned runs in six innings of an 8-3 Mets loss to the Dodgers last Sunday, and over his last three starts he's allowed eight ER in 18 1/3 innings. On the season, Gee has given up 101 hits in 102 innings, walked 29 and struck out 93.

Gee has started once this season vs. the Cubs, 11 days ago at Wrigley Field, and allowed four ER on nine hits in five innings.

Samardzija had been struggling mightily recently, but is coming off one of his best outings of the season, Monday vs. Atlanta, in which he allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings, walking one and whiffing 11, in a 4-1 Chicago win.

Overall Samardzija is eight-for-16 on quality starts this year, and the Cubs are 8-8 in his starts. He's now allowed 94 hits in 94 innings, walked 35 and struck out 96.

Samardzija has started once this year vs. the Mets, 10 days ago in that series at Wrigley, and got bombed for nine runs in 4 1/3 innings.

As of early Saturday morning, the best baseball odds we could find on New York for Saturday's game was the -142 offered at The Greek, while the best number available on Chicago was the +137 at 5Dimes.

The Mets could also be played at +145 on the run line at Bovada.

And most baseball betting outlets have tagged Saturday's game with an OVER/UNDER of eight.

In early wagering on Saturday's game about 70 percent of play on the side is coming in on the Mets, while 60 percent of the action on the total is coming down on the 'over.'

Free MLB Pick for Saturday

Samardzija had been going through a very rough stretch but looked damn good in beating Atlanta last week. So, in hoping he can back up his most recent start with another good one, we'll go with Chicago (and the underdog price) for Saturday.

Prediction: Cubs for the win.

The Mets just took two of three games from the Phillies, rallying for two runs in the bottom of the ninth off Philly closer Jonathan Papelbon to win Thursday's series rubber match 6-5. New York has now won six of its last eight games. 

On the other side of this matchup, the Cubs just split four games in Atlanta, losing that series finale Thursday 7-3. Still, Chicago has won seven of its last 10 games. 

So the Mets, at 45-38, are in second place in the NL East, 4.5 games behind first-place Washington. New York is also tied with San Francisco for the top two spots in the NL Wild-Card race. 

The Cubs, meanwhile, at 31-51, are 15 games off the pace in the NL Central. 

All-Star snub Johan Santana (6-4, 2.76) will start this series opener Friday night (7:10 pm Eastern) for New York against Chicago's Travis Wood (3-3, 3.05).

These two lefties squared off 11 days ago, and Wood got the better of the deal, holding the Mets scoreless through seven innings in a 6-1 Cubs victory. 

Santana has nine quality starts this year out of 16 tries, and the Mets are 9-7 in games he's started. His last time out Santana threw eight innings of three-hit, shut-out ball vs. the Dodgers, and over his last three starts he's allowed just two earned runs on 12 hits in 20 innings of work. 

For the season, Santana has given up just 74 hits in 98 innings, walked 33 and whiffed 93. 

In that game 11 days ago vs. the Cubs Santana allowed two ER on five hits through six innings. 

Warming up in the other bullpen, Wood is four-for-nine on quality starts this year, and Chicago is 5-4 in games he's started. Most recently Wood held Houston scoreless on three hits through seven innings last Sunday, and over his last three starts he's allowed just one earned run in 20 2/3 innings. 

So far this year Wood has given up just 41 hits in 56 innings, walked 20 and struck out 39. 

Friday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of late Friday morning, the best price we could find on the Mets was the -166 offered at, among other places, Pinnacle Sports, while the best number we found on the Cubs was the +162 at Matchbook. 

New York could also be played at +140 on the run line at 5Dimes. 

And most online sportsbooks are listing the OVER/UNDER on Friday's game at 7.5. 

Looking a little more long-term, BetOnline is chalking the Mets at -190 to win this series, with Chicago getting +165 as the underdog.

In early wagering on Friday's game about 68 percent of the action on the side has come in on New York while play on the total has leaned toward the OVER by a 53-47 margin. 

The Mets are 25-18 at Citi Field this year while the Cubs are 12-31 on the road. 

In the only previous meeting this season between these teams, a week and a half ago at Wrigley Field, Chicago took two of three games from New York. 

Free MLB Pick for Friday 

Wood has been pitching well for Chicago, but we get the feeling Santana would like to prove he was deserving of a spot on the NL All-Star staff. So we'll lay the price and go with the Mets Friday.

Pick: Take the Mets