MLB Betting Preview: Phillies vs. Mets

5* graded play UNDER the posted total between the Mets and Phillies in the final of a three game set. The first two games have seen each team dominate the other. I strongly believe this game will be one that is as obvious as it looks as R. A. Dickey takes on Cole Hamels.

This three game series has seen two blowout wins by each team and this is the marquee matchup. Hamels is not placed squarely in trade rumors as Phillies brass decide whether to rebuild for the future or make necessary bullpen acquisitions to get back into contention. Cliff Lee got his first win of the season and it took an incredible 13 starts to earn that win. Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay are projected to be back in the fold once the All-Star break is over. The Phillies have several very interesting and intriguing possibilities as the trading deadline approaches, and every win between now and Sunday will make GM Amaro’s job that much more difficult. 

The Betting Line

This line opened at 7 -105 at most shops, but the UNDER has been bet by the sharps. The number has not moved, but you will be laying -120 or even -125 to get this line at seven runs UNDER. I do not believe you will see this line move south of seven as there is too much risk to the books to assume OVER best at 6 ½ along with a UNDER bets at 7. I think that seven is a very fair line and this does mark one of the few times recently I am playing an obvious UNDER play. 

Supporting System

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 71-33 for 68% winners and has made 34.4 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play UNDER with all teams where the total is seven or less and with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game and with a rested bullpen that has thrown five innings or less over last three games. 

Cole Hamels

This is a showdown between two Cy Young contenders who may have a significant impact on who does get the award. Hamels has posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.099 WHIP, striking out 111 batters in 111 innings spanning 16 starts this season. Hamels ranks third in the National League with 10 wins, seventh with 111 innings pitched, and sixth with 111 strikeouts. 

In the latest update to the trade rumors involving Hamels, he and Ruben Amaro met and discussed the situation. Neither would comment on what was discussed, of course, but Hamels did state he wants to remain a Philly and for good reasons. He stated that "you never turn your back on people that believe in you. From drafting me with the medical issues that I had and even all the medical issues I had in the Minor Leagues, they still believed in me, still trusted me and kept me and pushed me. I've always been a more honorable guy than anything and I'll always stay that way.” 

Now, that is a man of character that I would want on my team. Moreover, his talent is among the best in baseball and he arguably has the best changeup of any left-hander in baseball. Batters are hitting just .181 on this pitch and he throws it 23% of all pitches, 19% on the first pitch of an at-bat, 23% when ahead in the count, 25% when behind in the count. All of this shows his tremendous confidence in this pitch and how it keeps batters off balance not allowing them to sit on a pitch. 

Dickey has been amazing and has only had one poor start that against the Yankees where he gave up five earned runs over six innings. His combination of knuckle ball and fastball is lethal. he is one of the few knuckleballers to be able to throw a fastball at 85 MPH. Given that the knuckle ball travels at about 65 to 72 MPH, the 85 MPH fast ball explodes on hitters appearing to have a 95 MPH speed. Rarely do you see any hitter be able to pull his fastball.