MLB Betting Preview: Pitching Report Card Edition 6

This marks the sixth edition of the starting pitching report card, which identifies contrarian betting opportunities. These opportunities arise from a starting pitcher and his teammates getting on a hot streak where betting lines are inflated by public sentiment.

These opportunities usually see at least 70% of all bets made on these types of teams, and with our play being on a dog, the majority of the time. However, these are dogs I strongly believe have a real chance of winning the game and, naturally, we benefit even more with the dog line.

For the first five weeks, this report has produced a 5-4 record making 1.27 units per one unit wagered. 

Last Week’s Results

This past week, I recommended to play against the Mets and R.A. Dickey in their game against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays were installed as -155 favorites with David Price toeing the rubber and they lost 9-1. 

The second play was when the Phillies with Joe Blanton played the Minnesota Twins and the 6-1 Scott Diamond last Thursday. The Phillies got an easy 6-1 win installed as +122 dogs. 

The third, and final, play was to play on the  New York Yankees with Phil Hughes on the hill facing the Washington Nationals and starter Gio Gonzalez. The result was a 7-2 Yankee win and they were installed as a +105 dog. 

For the three plays issues last week they posted a 2-1 mark and made 0.72 units per one unit wagered. For the overall results, these contrarian plays have produced a 7-5 mark and have made 1.99 units per one unit wagered. 

This week’s Target Plays

The following tables shows the last two weeks of starting pitcher reports and the respective money won on the season. This is the starting point to identify opportunities to fade pitchers that appear on this Top-10 list.

Starting Pitcher Net Money Won through June 13

Starting Pitcher Net Money Won through June 19

For the week ahead, I have six plays marking the most yet of the six weeks of releases. 

The first will be to play against R.A. Dickey and the Mets when they face the Yankees in the marquee Sunday Night baseball game to be televised by ESPN. Dickey’s opponent will be Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia, and I expect the Yankees to be lined as modest favorites, despite the Mets playing at home and Dickey’s incredible accomplishments to date. 

The next play will be to play against Jason Hammel when the Orioles host the Nationals in the first of a three-game set beginning at 7:05 PM ET, Friday. The Nationals will send out Ryan Zimmerman (3-5) to the hill, and I expect this game to be lined near pick-em. 

The third play will be to play against Ivan Nova when the Yankees take on the Mets in Game 2 of the subway series starting at 7:15 PM ET, Saturday. The Mets will send Young (1-1) to the hill and I fully expect the Mets to be a significant +135ish dog for this game. 

The fourth play will be to play against The Nationals and Stephen Strasburg when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays set to start at 7:05 PM ET, Wednesday (today). The line opened for this game with the Rays installed as +175 dogs and represents an excellent 5* opportunity. Check out the MLB thread with John Ryan thread for additional information on this opportunity. 

The next play will to be go against perfect game hurler Matt Cain and the Giants when they take on the Oakland A’s set to start at 4:05 PM ET, Saturday. Oakland is the host and will be sending McCarthy (6-3) to the hill. I see this game with Oakland installed as a +125 dog and possibly higher depending on how the next games go for each team. Note, though, that these plays are valid as outlined and that if you agree with the opportunity simply get the line offered. 

The sixth and final play will be to go against Washington Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday. The Rays will be sending out Moore (4-5), and this lie may come out in a range between +125 and -125. 

Recap

1. Play on the Yankees, Sunday

2. Play on the Nationals Friday

3. Play on the Mets, Saturday

4. Play on the Rays, Wednesday (today)

5. Play on Oakland, Saturday

6. Play on Tampa Bay, Thursday.