This marks the seventh edition of the starting pitching report card, which identifies contrarian betting opportunities. These opportunities arise from a starting pitcher and his teammates getting on a hot streak where betting lines are inflated by public sentiment.
These opportunities ofttimes
see at least 70% of all bets made being on these types of teams and with our
play being on a dog the majority of the time. However, these these are dogs I strongly believe have a real chance of winning the game and the bottom
line is augmented with the dog line.
The overall results
entering last week’s recommended opportunities, these contrarian plays have
produced a 7-5 mark and have made 1.99 units per one unit wagered.
Last Week’s Results
The
first recommended play was to take the Yankees against Mets' starting pitcher R.A. Dickey in Sunday Night Baseball. The Yankees won 5-4 in a
very entertaining game and were installed as -130 favorites.
The next play was to go against
the Orioles’ starting pitcher Jason Hammels in his start against the Nationals
last Friday. Baltimore got a 2-1 win and Washington was installed as a +105
dog.
The third of six recommended
plays was to take the Mets Saturday in Game 2 of the subway series facing Yankees
starter Ivan Nova. This was a losing play as the Yankees won 4-3 with the Mets
installed as a +138 dog.
The fourth play was on the Rays
when they took on the Nationals and ace starter Stephen Strasburg. The result
was a Nationals 3-2 win and the Rays were installed as whopping +205 dogs.
The next play was against perfect
game hurler Matt Cain and the Giants when they took on the Oakland A’s,
Saturday. Cain’s start was moved to Sunday and results in a 4-2 win for Oakland
installed as +136 dogs.
The sixth and final recommended
play was go against Washington Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez when they took on
the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday. The Rays lost 5-2 installed as +111 dogs.
So, for the week, the six plays
combined for a 2-4 record losing 1.67 units per one unit wagered. For the life
of this weekly column, the overall record is now 9-9 making 0.22 units per one
unit wagered.
Starting Pitcher Net Money Won
through June 19
|
Rank
|
Starter
|
Team
|
Record
|
Money
|
|
1
|
R.A.
Dickey
|
NYM
|
12-2
|
$1192
|
|
2
|
Jason
Hammel
|
BAL
|
10-3
|
$916
|
|
3
|
A.J.
Burnett
|
PIT
|
9-2
|
$862
|
|
4
|
Ivan
Nova
|
NYY
|
11-2
|
$802
|
|
5
|
Stephen
Strasburg
|
WAS
|
11-2
|
$793
|
|
6
|
Wei-Yin
Chen
|
BAL
|
9-4
|
$729
|
|
7
|
Matt
Cain
|
SF
|
11-3
|
$720
|
|
8
|
Ryan
Vogelsong
|
SF
|
9-3
|
$683
|
|
9
|
Gio
Gonzalez
|
WAS
|
10-3
|
$663
|
|
10
|
Chris
Capuano
|
LA
|
10-4
|
$626
|
Starting Pitcher Net Money Won
through June 26
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank
|
Starter
|
Team
|
Record
|
Money
|
|
1
|
R.A. Dickey
|
NYM
|
12-3
|
$10.90
|
|
2
|
Jason Hammel
|
BAL
|
11-3
|
$10.20
|
|
3
|
A.J. Burnett
|
PIT
|
10-2
|
$9.70
|
|
4
|
Ivan Nova
|
NYY
|
12-2
|
$9.00
|
|
5
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
WAS
|
12-3
|
$8.60
|
|
6
|
Chris Capuano
|
LA
|
11-4
|
$7.80
|
|
7
|
Stephen Strasburg
|
WAS
|
12-3
|
$7.20
|
|
8
|
Johnny Cueto
|
CIN
|
11-4
|
$7.00
|
|
9
|
C.J. Wilson
|
LAA
|
12-4
|
$7.00
|
|
10
|
Ryan Vogelsong
|
SF
|
10-4
|
$6.90
|
I am going to suggest and
recommend just two plays this week and it involves the two starters on top of
the current Money List. I will recommend a play against the Mets and
knuckleballer R. A. Dickey when they take on the Los Angeles Dodgers set to
start at 10:10 PM ET, Friday. Aaron Harang will start for the Dodgers and I
expect this line to be near a pick-em with the possibility of the Dodgers being
slight favorites.
The second play will be to go against Jason
Hammel and the Baltimore Orioles when they host the Angels and starter Weaver
on the hill set to start at Camden Yards at 7:05 PM ET. Los Angeles Angels opened
as -124 favorites and betting flows have been a bit erratic, but are centered
around this opening level.