MLB Betting: Starting Pitching Report Card & Picks

This is the eighth edition of the weekly starting pitching report card, which identifies contrarian opportunities in MLB games. Like the National and American League reports, this report includes featured opportunities based on public sentiment and net money won.

To be certain, though, always check the MLB with John Ryan thread several times a day to get the latest facts and possible upgrades from these 5* presentations to 10 and 20* Titan Plays. 

These wagering opportunities arise from a starting pitcher and his teammates getting on a hot streak where betting lines are inflated by public sentiment. As we know, the public is addicted, so to speak, to favorites, especially ones with marquee names and starters, mistakenly believing that they are sure winners. 

These opportunities often times see at least 75% of all bets made being on these types of teams and with our play being on a dog the majority of the time. However, these dogs are ones I strongly believe have a real chance of winning the game, and the bottom line is augmented with the dog line. 

This season has been marked by some very strong pitching and commensurately weak hitting by MLB teams. Still, I have never seen more Triple A-caliber hitters and more blown holds and saves this season when compared to seasons past. So, the game has taken on an even greater weighting in evaluating bullpens and closers and how hitters matchup against these pitching specialists. At the end of the day, however, evaluating starting pitchers is still the dominant variable in fundamental handicapping. 

Last week’s results

Since the inception of this weekly column, the overall record is now 9-9, making 0.22 units per one unit wagered. Last week’s plays were to go against the Mets and R.A. Dickey in Los Angeles and to fade the Orioles with starting pitcher Hammel going against Angels starter Jared Weaver. 

The plays split with the Mets hammering the Dodgers as a +141 home dog. The other play won as the Angels hammered Hammel, scoring eight earned runs in just 3 ? innings of work and winning, 13-1, installed as -120 favorites. So, a 1-1 record and nothing gained. 

So, including last week’s summation, the record now stands at 10-10, making 0.22 units per one unit wagered. 

Starting Pitcher Net Money Won through June 26

Starting Pitcher Net Money Won through July 2, 2012

Think the starting pitching-depleted Yankees wish they had this version of A.J. Burnett? Certainly YES. He is a major reason the Pirates are enjoying success this season, and I fully expect him to continue the level of play he has exhibited during the first half of the season. He is now 9-2, having won eight straight decisions dating back to May 19. His last loss occurred May 2, when he allowed 12 earned runs in 2 ? innings of work against St. Louis. Since then, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in 10 starts. He has posted a 5-0 record with a 2.84 ERA in June starts. He is certainly not a fade at this point. 

R.A. Dickey continues to fly high on the radar, and I recommend playing against him when the Mets take on Philadelphia's Cole Hamels this Thursday starting at 7:05 PM ET at Citi Field. Hamels is now the center of trade rumors given the Phillies last place standing in the National League East standings. Still, he is having another strong season with a 10-4 record, 3.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, striking out 111 batters in 111 innings pitched. The 2008 NLCS MVP and 2008 World Series MVP has great ‘stuff’ and is certainly going to have a no-hitter on his resume at some point in his career. 

As good as he is, though, he has yet to win more than 15 games in a season. With 10 already under his belt and Chase Utley back in the lineup and Ryan Howard set to return after the break, he has more of a chance at winning the Cy Young and 20 games, then winning just 15 games.