MLB Betting: Weekly Pitching Report

Let's take a look at some of the MLB's hottest and streakiest pitchers, and discus how we can take advantage of the public's 'irrational exuberance' to aid in the making of our MLB picks. It's time to make some money.

One of the best handicapping tools is to become a contrarian type of data analyzer, and I will provide you with one of those techniques in this article. We already know of the subjective and sometimes mysterious nature of the public bettor and their ability to force the hand of the books into making line adjustments.

One of the biggest errors is that many baseball bettors have ‘large size’ egos and completely believe that they are smarter than the books. Well, it is not a battle of wits and mental aptitude, but rather a identifying opportunities where the public bettor is betting with irrational exuberance.

'Irrational Exuberance'

In my Wall Street days, I had always believed that the most powerful man in the world was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, simply because he was accountable and responsible for the supply of money in the economy by adjusting interest rates according to current levels of economic activity. One of his most famous speeches was in the late-90’s when he proclaimed that stocks were overpriced and that in his opinion, investors (the public) were buying into an irrational exuberance about the prospects for the stock market.

He was early by several years from the actual top of the NASDAQ, but he did prove correct as the NASDAQ has not come anywhere close to its’ all-time record high above the 5000 level. So, that is where this phrase originated, and this type of human behavior occurs every day in our lives. 

Looking at the top-10 list of starting pitcher’s win-loss records, and the respective money earned and lost, can provide an excellent starting point for contrarian style betting opportunities. Let take a look at that that list now as shown below. 

Starting Pitcher Top-40

There a few recognizable names in this list, but this is the beginning of a Black List where the men mentioned ought to be considered fades. The baseball odds will be inflated even more for those starters on division leading teams. James Shield and David Price are in the beginning stages of the 'irrational exuberance' phase and I do not see both of these starters winning their starts in the same week. So, of if you chose to fade them, you will be rewarded by the inflated lines and need only with one of the two starts to make a significant profit.

Wow, this list includes some surprises and those are the starters I would begin to see value in for upcoming starts. Cliff Lee pitches Wednesday night and is coming off the DL. I have added 5* graded play on this game to my MLB picks for a ton of reasons other than he appears on this list.

Blackburn is on a bad offensive team so playing him still involves a ton of risk that is not acceptable to take quite yet. Dan Haren, however is a monumental surprise with a 1-6 record and of course the money lost is reflective of how the public had viewed the Angels as a contending team entering the season. I do think Haren will offer some great opportunities over his next several starts.

Let’s see how these 20 starters do in their next start(s) between now and Next Wednesday’s updated report. I know you will find over the course of the season that fading the big money winners and playing on the money burners will give you an excellent chance at booking some additional profits.