MLB Betting: Weekly Pitching Report

As we continue to apply my 'contrarian' method to my MLB picks, lets take a look at a few of the starting pitchers who will fit the mold this week. Streaks and slumps have caused the odds makers to leave a few doors open for us in the upcoming days.

This is the fourth edition of the Starting Pitcher Report Card focused on providing contrarian style plays that play against very hot starting pitchers that my research and opinion are vulnerable to below average starts and starts that would not qualify as a ‘quality start’. 

So, 2-0 for the plays last week making 2.27 units per one unit wagered. For the three-week period, this reports have established a 5-1 mark making 4.27 units per one unit wagered. Last week’s plays went 0-3 losing 3.0 units per one unit wagered bring the total for this feature to a 5-4 making 1.27 units per one unit wagered. 

The losing plays occurred last Thursday when the Mets went on the road and defeated the Nationals 3-1. Dickey was the play against pitcher and he went to an incredible 9-1 on the season with an incredible road performance. Another loss was when Washington went into Boston and Gio Gonzalez pitched well and won 4-2. The third loss occurred this past Monday, when the red hot Yankees defeated the Braves 3-0 with another impressive start by Nova. 

Net Money Won by Starting Pitchers through June 5, 2012

Net Money Won by Starting Pitchers Record

The Top-4 remained the same entering this week’s edition and Scott Diamond makes a debut on the list while Cole Hamels has dropped off this Top-10 list. 

I had mentioned last week that Dickey would be a play against today (Wednesday) when the Mets take on the Rays set to start at 7:10 PM ET. Dickey starts for the Mets and will be going against a strong team and a stronger starting pitcher in David Price. Supporting this graded play is a solid system that has gone 125-45 for 74% winners making 55.6 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play against the NL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 and is a team with a low on-base percentage  of .350 or less and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start and is facing a team with a good bullpen sporting a WHIP of 1.350 or less. The line for this game has the Rays favored at -145. 

Thursday, June, 14, the Twins will send Diamond to the hill and will be facing a very hungry Phillies team and starter Joe Blanton. The Phillies are reaching desperation stage with their losing ways of late and need to put together a winning streak immediately to have any meaningful chance at playoff contention. They are fourth in MLB team batting and I feel confident they will get to Diamond in this game.