Seattle fans finally get a chance to see the Mariners' big winter acquisition on Friday night when lefty Cliff Lee takes the Safeco Field mound to face the Texas Rangers.
The Texas Rangers travel to the Pacific Northwest for a weekend series against the Seattle Mariners with the opening game Friday night and the first pitch set for 10:10 p.m. (ET).
Texas will send right-hander Colby Lewis to the bump with his 3-0 record and ERA of 3.80. On the highway his ERA increases to 4.36 but he is still perfect with a record of 1-0 while his team is 1-1 with him taking the hill on the road this season.
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The Rangers are 3-6 overall on the road and 2-6 when facing left-handed starters.
Seattle will send lefty Cliff Lee to the mound for his first start of the 2010 campaign. Lee was traded from Philadelphia during the offseason after pitching extremely well for the Phillies last season.
The Mariners have been tough at home posting a record of 7-2 for 5.3 units of profit. They are averaging 4.3 runs per game while the Rangers have only managed 3.8 runs per game on the road. The Rangers have struggled against southpaws on the highway the last couple seasons going 8-21 (-12.9).
Our TPR Index projects a Mariners win by 2.2 runs over the Rangers on Friday night. The Math Model also favors the host in this situation with Seattle winning by 1.87 runs.
Finally a check of the database reveals a powerful league-wide system that tells us to play against AL road underdogs in this price range with a batting average of .260 or worse facing a team with a solid bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better and with a starting pitcher that gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start. Playing against the underdogs has produced a record of 40-8 the last five seasons and a profit of +28.1 units of profit.
With solid technical and situational support we will back the host team here as the Mariners open this three-game set with a victory on Friday night.
Projected Final Score: Seattle-4 Texas-2
Free Pick: Mariners -147