Houston played some inspired baseball in sweeping the Cardinals on the road. But it's back to the norm for the Astros tonight when they open a set in San Francisco.
The San Francisco Giants welcome the Houston Astros to the Bay Area for a three-game weekend set with the first game set for Friday night.
Houston is 12-21 on the year and 10-18 against right-handed starters this season. The Astros are only averaging 3.1 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .221.
Houston will hang its hopes on starter Felipe Paulino who is 0-5 with an ERA of 4.67. When Paulino takes the hill his team is 0-13 (-14.2 units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. The Astros are also 1-10 (-8.7 Units) as an underdog of 100-150 over the last two seasons.
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San Francisco is 18-14 on the season and 12-7 versus right-handed starters. The Giants average 4.8 runs per game when facing right-handed starters with a batting average of .273.
San Francisco will send Todd Wellemeyer to the bump with his 1-3 mark and an ERA of 5.97. His record improves to 1-1 with an ERA of 4.05 when he takes the hill at home.
Wellemeyer is 16-5 (+11.9 units) versus teams being outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season. The Giants are 30-11 (+15.2 units) as a home favorite of 125-150 over the last three seasons and 18-5 (+13.1 units) in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons.
A check of the database reveals three key technical situations that are active for Game 1 of this series. The Astros are 65-101 on the road and in is the first game of the series for a net profit of $2480 when playing against them. The Giants are 41-25 since September 19, 2008 in is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1535, and 26-7 at home in the first game of the series for a net profit of $1770.
Finally we have a system that tells us to plan on NL home teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season, starting a pitcher who walked five or more batters during his last start. Playing on these home favorites has produced a record of 31-7 for 81.6 percent winners and a profit of +22.4 units.
With solid technical support we will back the host here as the Giants take Game One of this series on Friday night.
Projected Final Score: San Francisco-6 Houston-4
Free Pick: Giants -140