The Tigers have been whipping southpaws recently while winning the last four starts by Jeremy Bonderman as a favorite. Detroit is the play on Friday against the Indians.
The Detroit Tigers travel to Cleveland for a three-game weekend set versus the Indians with the opening game Friday night and the first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Jeremy Bonderman takes the bump for the Tigers while David Huff gets the call for the Tribe.
Detroit is 5-1 in its last six games when installed as a favorite in this price range. The Tigers are also 10-4 when facing left-handed starters, 4-0 in Bonderman’s last four starts as a favorite, 9-3 when he starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 15-7 on the road when the total for the game is set in this range.
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The Indians are 8-17 versus teams from the AL Central Division and 16-35 when facing a team with a winning record. Cleveland has struggled recently in the first game of a series posting a record of 7-20 its last 27. The Indians are only 1-4 in Huff’s last five trips to the bump overall, 1-5 his last six starts as an underdog and 0-4 when he starts Game 1 of a series.
Head-to-head we see that Detroit and Bonderman have the upper hand as Detroit is 17-4 the last 21 meetings versus Cleveland, including 4-1 the last five in Cleveland. Bonderman is 6-1 his last seven versus the Tribe and 4-1 when starting here.
A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to play against teams in this price range who average 4.2 or less runs per game and have a bullpen WHIP of 1.550 or worse on the season facing a team with a bullpen that has an ERA of 3.75 or better. Playing against these MLB teams has produced a record of 50-14 the last five seasons for 78.1 percent winners and a profit of 30.6 units.
With solid technical and situational support for the visitor we will back the Cats here as they grab the first game of this weekend set in Cleveland.
Projected Final Score: Detroit-5 Cleveland-2
Free Pick: Tigers -110