Johan Santana gets the call for the Mets Thursday night in Miami in the role of the underdog. Back New York in this series opener against the Florida Marlins.
The New York Mets travel to South Florida for a four-game weekend set against the Marlins with the first game set for Thursday night at 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
The Mets will send left-hander Johan Santana to the bump with his 3-2 record and ERA of 4.54. His ERA took a major hit after giving up ten earned runs in a loss to the Phillies on May 2. That result raised his ERA by more than two runs from 2.08 to 4.50.
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Santana rebounded though in his next trip to the hill throwing 7 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on eight hits with six strikeouts as the Mets defeated the Giants, 5- 4. Johan now faces a Marlins team that gave him his first victory of the 2010 campaign. New York won 7-1 at home with Santana throwing six innings and giving up one earned run on four hits with five strikeouts.
For his career Santana is 6-1 versus the Marlins with an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 0.939. He is 33-5 (+25.9 units) after a game where he did not walk a batter since 1997.
Santana’s ability to strike out batters triggers a league-wide system that tells us to play on all MLB underdogs in this price range with a starter who strikes out five or more batters per start and catchers who allow 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game. These underdogs have been outstanding in this situation since 1997 posting a record of 118-88 for 57.3 percent winners and 53.1 units of profit.
The Marlins will send right-hander Josh Johnson to the hill Thursday night and he has a solid record versus the Mets over his career posting a 7-1 mark with an ERA of 2.69. He started against Johan in the opener this season, taking the loss and giving up four earned runs on five hits in five innings of work.
The Marlins have struggled to score runs against left-handers averaging 3.5 runs per game with a batting average of only .249.
We have another league-wide system that is active for tonight’s contest and it tells us to play against NL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better on the season. Playing against these National League teams has produced a record of 101-46 for 68.7 percent winners and a profit of 46.9 units the last five seasons.
We are going to back the visitor here as Johan and company grab another victory over the Marlins on Thursday night in Florida.
Projected Final Score: New York-4 Florida-3
Free Pick: Mets +115
For an opposing view, see Al McMordie's free pick on this contest.