Derek Lowe and Charlie Morton may have great career numbers vs. their respective opponents today, but the more important thing is that both are in poor current form. Go Over.
Last night, we had a big play on the Under 8 runs in the game between the Atlanta Braves
and the Pittsburgh Pirates
, and we were rewarded with a 7-0 Atlanta victory.
Today, we'll switch gears and look for a much-higher scoring game on a contest that has a posted total of nine with positive odds of +105. We are well aware that both Derek Lowe
and Charlie Morton
have had great success vs. their respective opponents in their careers.
Lowe is 7-0 since 1997 vs. Pittsburgh with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, while Morton's ERA in his starts vs. Atlanta is 0.00. Still, neither pitcher comes into this game in good, current form. Lowe has a 5.47 ERA, which dips to 5.96 on the road (with a horrid 1.72 WHIP). And Morton's ERA this year is even worse: 9.68, with a 1.75 WHIP.
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The Braves have sailed Over the total in eight of their last 12 games, and Lowe has gone Over the total in 47 of 75 as a road favorite. Throw in the fact that the Bucs are 100-68 Over the total in home games after failing to score 2+ runs in their previous outing, and we have all the ammunition we need to make this play.
Take Atlanta and Pittsburgh Over the total.
Free Pick:
Braves, Pirates Over 9 (+105)