MLB Pick: Brewers, Reds to go ‘under’

Bronson Arroyo of the Reds had a streak of three straight Quality Starts snapped Monday, but he has pitched well vs. Milwaukee and the Brewers have not hit well on the road. With Yovani Gallardo having another fine year, go ‘under’ on Saturday.

We could be seeing a pitchers’ duel in the Queen City on Saturday night when Yovani Gallardo and the Milwaukee Brewers (44-48 overall, 18-25 away) take on Bronson Arroyo and the Cincinnati Reds (52-40 overall, 28-18 home) as the teams continue a three-game series from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Bodog is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Reds are playing without Joey Votto right now and will for about three more weeks, but they have continued to win games despite not scoring that many runs and Cincinnati still maintains its precarious one-half game lead over the second place Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central.

Unfortunately for our followers, we were in the wrong side of Cincinnati’s low-scoring 3-1 victory in the series opener here last night, as Homer Bailey beat the Brewers for the first time in his career in his 11th start against them. He had an ERA over 6.00 vs. Milwaukee entering that contest. Regardless, we are shifting our focus to the ‘under’ tonight as neither offense tore things up on Friday and each pitcher tonight has had recent success vs. his opponent tonight.

Now granted, Arroyo will have to improve on Monday’s start vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks where he was roughed up for five earned runs on eight hits while lasting only three innings of a 5-3 loss. However, that outing may have just been an anomaly given Arroyo’s recent form entering that contest.

That stinker stopped a streak of three straight Quality Starts for Arroyo that included a Complete Game three-hit shutout of the San Diego Padres in one of the best pitched games in the league this year, and on top of that, he is also a perfect two for two in Quality Starts vs. these Brewers this year, allowing a total of four runs on nine hits and two walks in 13.2 innings with 13 strikeouts.

The right-hander is facing a Milwaukee lineup that is batting only .221 while averaging just 3.63 runs per game on the road, and the Brew Crew is batting a dreadful .216 vs. right-handed pitching away from home.

The Brewers had won two straight games vs. the St. Louis Cardinals before last night, but both of those wins came at home and as usual the Brewers did not take their offense with them on the road on Friday, managing only six hits. At least they have Gallardo on the bump tonight, as he may be Milwaukee’s most consistent pitcher this season.

Yovani has now reeled off seven straight Quality Starts while allowing one run or less in each of his last three outings. Gallardo is 8-6 with a 3.59 WHIP on the year, and he has a nice 121 strikeouts in 115.1 innings.

Similar to what Arroyo has done to the Brewers, Gallardo has two Quality Starts in his two outings vs. Cincinnati this year with identical stat lines, allowing only two runs on four hits in six innings on each occasion. He can also breathe a bit easier this evening with the knowledge that he does not have to worry about facing Votto, who is batting .342 this year.

Finally, the ‘under’ is now a spectacular 20-4-3 in the last 27 Reds’ games overall, so look for these fine pitchers to make that ‘under’ mark even more impressive on Saturday.