MLB Pick: Mariners vs. Yankees

The Yanks took the opener of this series Friday, getting a nice performance from C.C. Sabathia. New York won the opener of this series Friday night 6-3, but Felix Hernandez got Seattle back to even with a 1-0 complete-game victory Saturday.

The Mariners won as +140 underdogs Saturday, and that game stayed way UNDER its total of eight, just like we'd hoped it would. 

Game 1 of this series would have gone UNDER, too, if not for a meaningless two-run homer by Seattle's Dustin Ackley in the top of the ninth that pushed the total to nine. 

Seattle is 9-3 since trading Ichiro Suzuki to New York, while the Yanks are 5-6 with him. 

The Bombers are also just 4-5 without Alex Rodriguez, who's on the DL with a broken bone in his hand. 

Sunday's Pitching Matchup 

Freddy Garcia (4-5, 5.10) gets the start Sunday for New York vs. Hisashi Iwakuma (2-2, 4.10) for Seattle. 

Garcia is just two-for-ten on quality starts this season. His last time out, Garcia gave up three runs on nine hits in six innings in a 5-4 loss to Baltimore last Monday, and over his four starts since the All-Star break, he's allowed 13 ER on 28 hits in 24 innings. 

For the season, Garcia has given up more hits, 76, than innings pitched, 67, although his 52/17 K/BB ratio isn't bad. 

In his one start this year vs. the Mariners, Garcia allowed three runs on five hits over 7 1/3 innings in a 4-2 New York defeat 12 days ago out in Seattle. 

Iwakuma, meanwhile, is two-for-five on quality starts this season. In his latest outing, he held Toronto to one run in eight innings, walking three and striking out 13, in a 4-1 Seattle victory last Monday. And just before that, in his only career start vs. the Yankees, he gave up just one run on six hits in five innings of a 5-2 Mariners loss ten days ago. 

For the season, the Japanese righty has allowed fewer hits, 54, than innings pitched, 59, and owns a 50/28 K/BB ratio. 

Sunday's Betting Odds 

Most online sportsbooks we consulted Sunday morning opened this game with New York favored by right around -180, but because about 70 percent of the early play on the side came in on the Yanks that number quickly got bumped to -190 and even -200 at some places. 

The total sits at 9.5. 

The Yanks can also be played at around +105 on the run line at several baseball betting outlets. 

Free MLB Pick 

We don't like that big price on Garcia, so instead we'll play the UNDER on the 10 total runs.

The Yanks could also be played at upwards of +145 on the run line at several baseball betting shops. 

Early betting action for Saturday's game has seen about 60 percent of play on the side come down on the Yankees, while play on the total was just about right down the middle. 

Free MLB Pick 

We were on the UNDER last night, then got screwed when C.C. gave up that homer in the ninth. Actually, we settled for a 'push,' but that's one we should have won. Anyhoo, we're thinking along the same lines for today, so we'll go with the UNDER eight on the total.

Setting the Scene

New York just dropped a series at home to Baltimore, avoiding a sweep with a 12-3 victory on Wednesday. So the Yanks have actually lost two series in a row and nine of their last 13 games.

Heading into the weekend New York, at 61-43, leads the AL East by 6.5 games over the Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yanks are also now tied with Texas for the best record in the American League. 

Seattle, meanwhile, just swept a three-game series at home from Toronto to extend its winning streak to seven games. So the Mariners have won four of their last five series and 13 of their last 17 games to get within seven games of the .500 mark at 50-57.

Friday's Pitching Matchup

CC Sabathia (10-3, 3.57) will hit the hill Friday night for New York against Kevin Millwood (4-8, 3.90) for Seattle.

Sabathia is 11-for-18 on quality starts this season. His last time out Sabathia got clipped for six runs in six innings against Boston last Saturday, but in his two starts before that CC had allowed just three ER on 10 hits through 13 innings.

This will be Sabby's first start this season against the Mariners. 

Millwood, meanwhile, is 9-for-20 on quality starts this season. Most recently he gave up one unearned run on six hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Seattle victory over Kansas City last Saturday. But in his three starts previous to that he had allowed 13 ER on 27 hits over 18 2/3 innings. The M's had lost his previous six starts. 

Millwood has already started twice this year against the Yankees, giving up four ER on 13 hits through 14 innings. The Mariners split those two games. 

Seattle is only 7-13 in Millwood's starts this season, while New York is 12-6 in Sabathia's starts. But the 'over/unders' are 7-12 in Millwood's starts, and 12-6 in Sabathia's.

Friday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of early Friday morning the best price we could find on the Yankees was the -242 being offered at Matchbook, while Seattle could be had at +237 at 5Dimes. New York could also be played at -122 on the run line at Matchbook. 

Also, every baseball betting shop we consulted Friday morning was listing the total on Friday night's game at nine. 

In early betting on Friday's game about 67 percent of play on the side was coming in, unsurprisingly, on the Yankees, and about 55 percent of the action on the total was coming in on the 'over.' 

These two teams just met a couple series ago, out in Seattle, when New York took two of three games from the M's, and left town with Ichiro Suzuki. The Yanks lead the season series with Seattle four games to two, and five of those six games have stayed 'UNDER' the MLB odds totals. 

Injury Report

New York is playing without Alex Rodriguez, who suffered a broken bone in his hand when the Yanks were out in Seattle a couple weeks ago. Also, Mark Teixeira has missed recent action with a sore wrist, and his status for Friday is uncertain.

Free MLB Pick for Friday

That money-line price is way too high for a team that's struggled a bit lately going against a team on a seven-game winning streak. So we'll steer clear of the side on this one.

The Yankees are 43-60 on the 'over/unders' this season, and the totals are 21-32 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season. So we'll go with the 'UNDER' on Friday night's game for our free MLB pick here.