Clayton Richard of the Padres has tossed four straight Quality Starts with three coming on the road, while Trevor Cahill of Arizona has had two straight bad outings and a 5.25 ERA at home. Take San Diego as a nice dog Monday.
It looks like a nice spot for an upset on Monday night when Clayton Richard and the San Diego Padres (30-50 overall, 14-26 away) take on Trevor Cahill and the Arizona Diamondbacks (39-39 overall, 20-17 home) as the teams begin a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET.MLB Pick
The money line at 5 Dimes has San Diego as a nice-sized underdog for this contest at current odds of +153.
The Diamondback are at .500 and in third place in the National League West, just five games behind the new front-runners in the division, the San Francisco Giants, who have overtaken the Los Angeles Dodgers by one game. The Padres meanwhile are in last place in the division with the second worst record in all of baseball, just percentage points ahead of the Chicago Cubs.
However, the Padres have now won three of their last four games after taking two out of three from the Colorado Rockies over the weekend and winning the final game vs. the Houston Astros on the road in the previous series. San Diego also looks to have the pitching advantage here with Richard, giving the Pads value at this nice underdog price.
Now these pitchers have very similar numbers when look at their overall numbers, as Richard is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while Cahill s 6-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. However, Richard has the much better current form and, unlike other San Diego pitchers, he has proven that he can pitch well away from the spacious dimensions of Petco Park.
Richard has tossed four straight Quality Starts, and more significantly, three of those outings came on the road. Furthermore, the three Quality Starts on the road were certainly not cheap ones either, as he allowed one run in seven innings vs. the Seattle Mariners, tossed 7.2 scoreless innings vs. the Oakland Athletics and allowed one run and only two hits in seven innings vs. the Astros on Wednesday.
Granted, those are not exactly three terrific offenses but Richard has also allowed three runs or less in his last three starts vs. Arizona, with the most recent outing coming this year on June 1st when he held the Diamondbacks to one run on seven hits in 6.2 innings.
Arizona is returning home from a 4-6 road trip where the Diamondbacks first lost two out of three to the Atlanta Braves and then did the same to the Milwaukee Brewers. Still, the Snakes have not done a great job of protecting their home field this year, going just 20-17 in Phoenix, and Cahill has had his troubles in his new home stadium after pitching in pitcher-friendly Oakland over his entire career until this year.
Cahill is not in good current form as he has allowed exactly six runs in each of his last two starts, although only four of them were earned over five innings vs. the Braves last time out after he allowed six earned runs in six innings over the normally light-hitting Seattle Mariners in his previous start.
Perhaps more importantly, Cahill is just 2-3 with an ugly 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in this ballpark, where opponents are batting .295 against him as opposed to .210 on the road. He is not much of a strikeout guy either with only 70 in 95.2 innings, and his command has not been thee greatest with 38 walks.
All things considered, the Padres offer nice value at this price given this pitching matchup, so take San Diego as a nice underdog on Monday.
: Padres +153