How can us MLB bettors profit off of one of MLB's biggest rivalries? Find out where we are placing our baseball picks in the opening games of the Red Sox and Yankees' series.
The AL East leading New York Yankees host the division cellar dwelling Boston Red Sox. While tonight’s game doesn’t have much riding on it as far as the standings are concerned, the bad blood between these two teams is sure to produce on hell of a series. We're going to take a look at both Friday and Saturday's matchups, as we try to decide where we can find the best value for our MLB picks.
Last time out I hit my Phillies vs. Brewers matchup for both days. Let's see if we can duplicate that feat going into the last weekend of July.
Saturday, July 28th- 4:05 pm ET
This is an earlier game, and I want to make sure that you have the maximum amount of time to view this article. As I always do, I predict where I believe that most online baseball betting shops will open the odds. Feel free to check my previous articles, where I have been spot on when predicting the odds.
Saturday's starting pitching matchup will be much more competitive, as Jon Lester (5-8, 5.46) takes the mound to face Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia (10-3, 3.30). Lester hasn't pitched like a number 2 starter this season, therefore the odds should great be in the Yankees favor (-170 or greater) and the total should be in the 7 to 7.5 run range due to Lester's inefficiency and Sabathia's effectiveness
Left hander Jon Lester has always been one of the better pitchers in the league but in his last two starts, he's pitched like a minor league AA pitcher.
In these starts, Lester has pitched 8 innings and given up 17 runs and 16 hits. That's' possibly the two worst games of his career combined. Boston will once again have to hit well off of Yankee pitching. That's a tall order when you have C.C. starting and Soriano closing. Rafael Soriano has been near perfect and looks like he will replace Mariano Rivera once the great Rivera retires.
There's really not much to say here. Jon Lester has pitched so poorly that one couldn't possibly have any confidence in him whatsoever. The only choice is to take the Yankees moneyline or runline, and being that I'm unaware of the odds, I'm going to side with the runline and less risky odds.
Pick - Yankees -1.5
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Friday, July 27th- 7:05 pm ET - Yankees -173, total 10
No matter the records, when you get any Boston vs. New York matchup, both teams rise to the occasion. These teams absolutely hate each other, and even though the Red Sox are out of contention, at 49-50, they are always happy for a shot at embarrassing the Yankees.
No Big Papi?
This will be a major benefit for Yankees starter Phil Hughes (9-8, 4.09) as he doesn't have to face the slimmed down David Ortiz. Ortiz is a lifetime 9 for 20 with 3 doubles, 2 HR and 7 RBI against Hughes. When it comes down to it, the Yankees always look to pitch around Big Papi, but this time they won't have to worry about it.
The loss of Alex Rodriguez has very little positive effect for Boston, as Rodriguez is aging and just an ordinary player at this point in his career. Time and time again, Rodriguez has had opportunities to come through during pivotal situations, and he simply hasn't risen to the expectations.
However, Boston will have to worry about the quartet of Cano, Teixeira, Jeter, and Granderson. Yankee Stadium benefits both Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson with the short porch in right field. Granderson hasn't hit much for average (.249) but he's among the league leaders in home runs (27) thanks to Yankee Stadium. Derek Jeter (.311) has proven to be ageless, as he continues to be the definition of consistency at 38 years of age.
The Difference maker
As a Yankees fan, it's very evident that Mark Teixeira is the difference maker on this team. There's no problem with Tex's glove or power, but he's had an inability to hit for average these past couple of years. Lately, Teixeira has improved dramatically. In his last 10 games, he's 12 for 33 with 1 HR and 6 RBI. More than the numbers, he's getting the big hits and his confidence level is at an all time high.
Mark Teixeira and the rest of the Yankees will be a tall order for Red Sox veteran pitcher Aaron Cook. The Sox have had trouble with their 1 and 2 pitchers, and Cook hasn't helped the Sox’ cause. In his last outing, Cook pitched 6 1/3 innings and gave up 5 runs and 4 hits while taking the loss. Let's face it; this is a pitcher that has a record of 9-18 in his two previous seasons. The Boston Red Sox will need some offense and for this game to be a high scoring marathon to win.
It will be up to players like Adrian Gonzalez to produce. Gonzalez has had a lackluster season, but has seemed to get his stroke back. For Gonzalez to get over the .300 mark would be a great accomplishment for the way that he started the season. Hughes will need to be careful as Gonzo is a lifetime 4 for 8 against him with 1 RBI.
I like the Yankees in this spot, as the Sox are without Ortiz, and the Bombers have a decisive pitching advantage. Although these teams tend to play in high scoring games, the 10 runs should be enough.
MLB Picks: Yankees -173 and Under 10