The Red Sox and the Yankees will settle their three game series in tonight's rubber match. Who are the odds makers favoring, and where are we placing our MLB picks.

Red Sox at Yankees

Mark Teixeira

10* graded play on the Boston Red Sox as they take on the New York Yankees set to start at 8:05 PM ET and will be televised by ESPN. Boston showed a lot of heart last night after blowing a 6-1 lead by scoring by scoring two in the Top of the ninth. Yankee Center fielder Curtis Granderson misplayed a fly ball hit by designated hitter Pedro Ciriaco turned into a two RBI triple.

This win marked only the second win of eight games played against the Yankees this season. With a win tonight, the Boston Red Sox can win their first series against their divisional rival Yankees since last August.

The Red Sox may trail the Yankees by 10 12/ games, but they are very much alive in the American League wild card race. There are eight teams competing for the two wild card berths currently. Boston is tied with Cleveland five games back of the wild card leading Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Angels. Oakland is by far the hottest team in MLB and have won nine of their last 10 games so it is imperative that Boston not fall further behind with 61 games left in the regular season.

Offensive Matchups and Comparisons

The Red Sox are hitting .324 against Yankee pitching this season, which would eclipse the previous season high since 1921 and the highest since they batted .318 against the Yankees in 1984. So, scoring hitting has not been the problem for them season. The difference between these two teams is clearly the respective pitching staffs. However, the Red Sox have perhaps their best ‘Yankee’ pitcher in Doubront tonight.

The Red Sox rank seventh in MLB with a .266 team batting average and have Carl Crawford back in the lineup since returning the disabled list. The Red Sox rank third in scoring an average 4.91 runs per game, fourth averaging 9.26 hits per game, sixth averaging 1.18 home runs per game, and fifth fewest hitting into an average of only 0.62 double plays per game. By comparison, the Yankees rank 10th with a .263 team batting average, fifth averaging 4.86 runs per game, 12th averaging 8.92 hits per game, first averaging 1.59 home runs per game, but 26th worst hitting into an average of 0.85 double plays per game.

Pitching Matchups

Felix DoubrontThe Red Sox rank 24th in the MLB, posting a 4.33 ERA, 18th with a 1.307 WHIP, and 16th with a 2.41 strikeouts-to-walk ratio. The Yankees rank eighth in MLB with a 3.71 ERA, 14th with a 1.487 WHIP, and second with a 2.97 strikeouts-to-walk ratio. Yankees have been the better pitching staff this season, but again the starting pitching matchup favors the Red Sox.

Felix Doubront

He is a diminutive starting pitcher at 6-2 and just 165 pounds, but uses tremendous flexibility to generate powerful rotation and late-breaking movement on his pitches. He has a very good fastball that he range between 90 and 96 MPH. Two-seam fastball always have greater pitch movement and are the lower than straight four-seam gripped fastball. His two-seamer rides in late and hard on left-handed batters, which generates weekly hit balls off the handle of the bat.

The same works for him when facing right-handed batters, where he can use the two-seem as a backdoor fastball and ‘out’ pitch. This pitch will start down the middle and once the batter commits to swinging at it is when the tailing movement of the pitch occurs. In these situations, right-handed batters will hit ‘nubbers’ off the end of their bats for easy outs.

His fastball is so good that he starts off 89% of at-bats with this pitch. he uses a very good curveball 15% of pitches thrown to left-handed batters. Hitters are batting just .217 on that pitch. So, you can see that he has the tools and pitches to be able to dominate any team in MLB.

Supporting System

Supporting my MLB picks is a system that has produced a record of 42-33 for 56% winners, but has made 37.6 units per one unit wagered since 2006.  Play on home favorites with a money line of -150 or more after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base and with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. What makes this system so strong and reliable is that it has averaged a +168 dog play.

MLB Picks: Take the Boston Red Sox for a 10* graded play.