MLB Pick: Rockies vs. Dodgers

Chad Billingsley and the LA Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies tonight. Find out why we believe that baseball bettors can find great value by adding a play on run line to their MLB picks in tonight's late game.

Dodger Stadium has proven over the years to be the epitome of a hostile environment for the Colorado Rockies. They arrived in Los Angeles this week with a 58-94 all-time record at Chavez Ravine, and saved from owning the worst record in the majors this season only by the pitiful Houston Astros. 

In other words, this was supposed to be an excellent chance for the Dodgers to take at least two of three, and either make up some ground on the NL West-leading San Francisco Giants or improve their positioning in the National League wild card race. 

Instead, Colorado is in position to pull off its first sweep in LA in nearly five years when the clubs wrap up their series Wednesday night. Accomplishing the feat will require the Rockies to overcome some pretty hefty MLB odds as the Dodgers are -200 favorites to avoid the brooms.

The big moneyline is representative of a mismatch on the mound, as one might have deduced. Chad Billingsley, who has been very sharp since coming off the disabled list, takes his turn in the Los Angeles rotation against Colorado's Jeff Francis, who has been anything but sharp the past few weeks. Bettors are looking at the same 7.5 run total that has been available in the previous two games, and the 'under' will cost an extra two bits. 

Colorado has overcome substantial odds twice already with victories as a +180 dog on Monday and again Tuesday getting +165. The series opener saw four Rockies pitchers combine to hurl 171 pitches in a 2-0 whitewashing, and Game 2 was eerily similar as five arms got together to hurl Colorado to a 3-1 triumph. 

Both games stayed UNDER the total, and that is an anomaly when these clubs get together in LA almost as much as a Rockies win. Before the series started, 10 of the last 15 tilts at Dodger Stadium busted the scoreboard number. Going back to the start of the 2010 campaign, the clubs were averaging about 8.5 runs per game on this diamond prior to Monday's opener. 

The Dodgers' offense has been scuffling a bit for the past two weeks, averaging just 3.4 rpg the last 14 games. A big chunk of those runs came in a 10-0 eruption at San Francisco during a big sweep of the Giants. Facing Francis might be a good time for the Los Angeles hitters to break out of their funk. 

Francis has seen his ERA rise more than a run over his last four assignments, and is coming off back-to-back poundings at Coors Field administered by the Cardinals at Giants. He has pitched better on the road this year, and he has posted pretty good numbers at Dodger Stadium with a 2-0 record and 1.92 ERA his last five trips to this mound. This will, however, be his first outing in LA since 2008, and his first start vs. the Dodgers in any park since 2010.

Billingsley has authored three consecutive wins since returning from a short trip to the DL, including the first seven innings of that 10-0 rout in San Francisco previously mentioned. The Rockies have been a thorn in his side over the years, though, with the Dodgers winning only two of his last eight assignments vs. Colorado. The good news is two batters that have given him fits, Todd Helton (.414, 2 HR) and Troy Tulowitzki (.297, 3 HR) will not be stepping into the batter's box against him tonight.

If you're looking for guidance from tonight's plate umpire, Paul Schreiber is expected to don the mask to call balls and strikes. The 15-year veteran arbiter brings a 13-9 O/U record into the game, a mark that was very heavy to the OVER prior to his last four plate assignments failing to reach the total.

One note for potential Colorado backers to consider is the bullpen where closer Rafael Betancourt and primary setup arm Matt Belisle have each pitched the past two games. Even with Thursday being an off day for the Rockies, manager Jim Tracy could be reluctant to use one or both a third consecutive day. That being said, I am adding the Dodgers on the Run Line to my MLB picks in tonight's late game.