MLB Pick: Tigers, Rangers go ‘under’ 11

Generally bloated totals like 11 require both offenses to show up in order to go ‘over’. While there is no doubt that the Rangers can hit, the Tigers are struggling mightily on offense so go ‘under’ the big number Monday.

Look for a lower scoring game than the posted double-digit total suggests when the Major Leagues return to intra-league play Monday night as Rick Porcello and the Detroit Tigers (35-37 overall, 18-19 away) take on young Justin Grimm and the Texas Rangers (45-28 overall, 22-13 home) as the teams begin a three-game weekend series from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 11 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

The Tigers were expected by many to run away with the American League Central this year before the season started, but instead we are almost to the end of June and Detroit is still two games under .500 and in third place, actually very fortunate to be only three games behind the first place Chicago White Sox in what has been a weak division to this point.

The Tigers were expected to have a great offense this season with the addition of Prince Fielder, but that area has been a huge disappointment, especially recently. Yes, they avoided the three-game sweep at Pittsburgh over the weekend by winning 3-2 on Sunday behind Justin Verlander’s Complete Game, but that marked the fifth straight game that the Tigers scored three runs or less, and they had scored a grand total of five runs in their prior four games before Sunday.

They are hitting a dismal .174 as a team over those five games including .172 vs. right-handed pitchers, and the last thing that Detroit needs right now is to be facing an unfamiliar young pitcher that its hitters have never seen before, as is the case with Texas’s right-hander Grimm tonight.

Grimm made his first Major League start vs. the Houston Astros last week, and he was promptly installed as a -190 favorite in his initial outing. He did not disappoint either by recording a Quality Start, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings while impressively striking out seven and walking nobody in the 8-3 victory. That was enough for Texas to allow Grimm to take over the rotation spot of the ineffective Scott Feldman tonight.

The Rangers got off to an amazing start this season, then tailed off for a bit, and have now caught fire again by winnings eight of their last nine games. They have now opened up a five-game lead on the second place Los Angeles Angels in the American League West in a race that is obviously far from over.

Texas had its seven-game winning streak snapped by the Rockies Saturday night, but the Rangers rebounded to beat Colorado 4-2 last night behind Matt Harrison. Now, do not get us wrong, the Rangers do figure to score their share of runs tonight vs. Porcello, but can they score enough by themselves for this game to go ‘over’ 11?

Porcello has been a disappointment at 4-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for the year, but to be fair he does have three Quality Starts in his last five outings including limiting the St. Louis Cardinals to two runs in seven innings last time out in a tough 3-1 loss. In fact, that was his first loss in the month of June, as aluded to by Joe Freda of SBR, who also picks the 'under'.

So while we don’t expect Porcello to totally shut down the potent Rangers’ offense, we look for him to contain them enough to keep this game ‘under’ this huge total on Monday given Detroit’s struggles on offense.