MLB Picks: Braves vs. Marlins

The Atlanta Braves look to secure their spot in the playoffs with a strong showing against the Miami Marlins. Join us as we follow each game of their three game set, sharing our MLB picks along the way. Is their betting value to be found?

Will the rubber game today in Miami between the Marlins and Atlanta Braves live up to the hype of an expected pitchers duel? 

All signs certainly point to the Hump Day affair at Marlins Park being a low-scoring battle. Today's baseball betting card is overflowing with action following a couple of rainouts on Tuesday along the Eastern seaboard, and the matchup in Miami shares low-total with a 6.5 run mark, same as out in San Francisco where the Giants host the Colorado Rockies. 

The visiting Braves are once again favored in the contest in the -135 to -140 range, right where they were priced for the first two games that the clubs split. Kris Medlen gets the call for Fredi Gonzalez's group while Josh Johnson is up for Ozzie Guillen and the Fish. 

It's tough to argue with the total that is being offered given how the two pitchers have been performing, and equally tough to question Medlen being favored on the MLB odds board. Atlanta has won each of his nine starts since Medlen joined the rotation at the end of July, and he has yet to allow more than two runs in any of the outings with a 0.86 ERA in that span. That's not a misprint, 0.86 ERA. 

Perhaps even more impressive than the ERA is the 66:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio the unassuming righthander has in those nine assignments. And to think it all began with a winning performance against these Marlins on July 31 which was preceded by Medlen working three shutout innings in relief against them six days earlier. 

Johnson's recent numbers aren't near as impressive as Medlen's, but then, whose are? Still, with the exception of one rough-up in LA against the Dodgers, the big righty has been pitching pretty well. It's just that Johnson has not been getting the help from his bullpen and lineup to turn his efforts into wins as Miami is 1-6 his last seven starts despite his 3.71 ERA.

All signs point to a 2-1, 3-2 game tonight in Miami, but count me among the stubborn old fools who will play the total the other way.

My pick: Over 6.5 (-105)

Paul Maholm has been on a rollercoaster ride the last month with a good outing followed by a bad outing. If that trend continues Tuesday night, we should see a solid performance by the former star at Mississippi State.

Is that enough of a reason to back the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday when the MLB odds have them listed as -135 chalk in the middle game of their series against the Miami Marlins? Probably not, but coupled with Atlanta being on a good run and facing a pitcher its lineup rocked earlier this summer, then we have the basis for a play. 

Nate Eovaldi is scheduled for Miami on Tuesday, and the Game 2 total is set at 8.5 with a level price OVER/UNDER.

Atlanta pared another half-game off idle Washington's lead in the NL East, and increased its hold at the top of the wild card race to 7.5 in the process. But the 7-5 triumph wasn't without some tense moments after the Braves bolted to a 6-0 advantage before holding on to win their fourth straight, and 11th in the last 15.

Maholm was banged around last week in Milwaukee where the Brewers got to him for eight runs (6 earned) before he could finish the fifth inning. This will be his first start against Miami since joining the Braves, and he shut them down earlier this year while still part of the Cubs rotation with eight innings of 1-run baseball.

Eovaldi is seeing the Braves for the second time since coming to the Marlins in the trade that sent Hanley Ramirez west to Los Angeles. The young righty out of Alvin, Texas was treated rudely at Atlanta in early August (2 IP, 6 ER), and the Fish have won just one time in his four assignments at Marlins Park since he donned a Miami jersey.

There's a good chance that Brian McCann will catch Maholm tonight after the backstop missed the past few games with a bum hammy. Adding another left-handed bat to the lineup can only be a good thing for the Braves against Eovaldi, and my play will be on Atlanta to continue its recent ways.

My pick: Braves -135

Last week we wondered if the Phillies were about to charge into the playoffs a la the 2011 Cardinals. That silly notion was answered by Philadelphia's inability to do any better than a split in Houston over the weekend against the worst team in the majors.

Now we can't help but wonder if the best teams in the two leagues are the Atlanta Braves and Oakland Athletics and, if so, how much FOX executives will cry if that pair does indeed meet in the World Series. You've got to believe very few folks outside Georgia and the Bay Area would give a hoot, but at least Joe Buck and Tim McCarver could drone on about Chipper Jones' retirement and the fact Brad Pitt played Billy Beane in Moneyball. 

Atlanta continues its march towards the postseason when the Braves hit the road this week beginning with a stop in Miami for three against the Marlins. The Braves are favorites in the low -130s for Monday's series opener with the baseball odds boards showing 7.5 for the total, and favoring the UNDER.

Unlike last season when they collapsed in the final month to cough up a spot in the playoffs, the Braves are hitting their stride this September with a 10-5 mark so far and own a very comfortable 7-game lead in the National League wild card ranks. Atlanta begins this trip having just swept the Nationals to pull within 5.5 games of NL East-leading Washington, and did what very clubs have done this season by out-pitching the Nats in the 3-game set.

Atlanta also gets to kick this road trip off with veteran Tim Hudson on the hill, and that has generally been a very good thing over the years for the Braves when they face the Marlins. On the verge of completing his 14th MLB season, Hudson is 13-4 lifetime against the Fish with a 2.81 ERA in 24 starts covering more than 150 innings. He has added to that dominance this season with wins in both of his assignments vs. Miami while sporting a 1.69 ERA, though both of those did come at Turner Field with Monday's contest his first appearance at Marlins Park.

While the Braves have done well so far this month, September hasn't been all that great for Hudson. He's 1-2 in three starts, one a fine showing in a win at home vs. Colorado and the other two not so fine against the Phils and Brewers.

We noted Miami's struggles last week when covering their series with the Phillies, so there's not much reason to rehash that right now. Suffice to say the Marlins underachieved after a lot of hype entering 2012, and Ozzie Guillen's tenure with the team could be short-lived.

Miami will send Wade LeBlanc to the hill for his third start since rejoining the rotation at the beginning of September. It has been a month since he was on the winning end of any decision, and even that outing in Colorado wasn't much to crow about (5 IP, 5 ER).

LeBlanc has seen the Braves once as a starter and twice as a reliever, taking the loss in one of the games that he came out of the bullpen. The start in Atlanta came with him on a short pitch count, and he was unable to make it last long enough to get through the fifth. In his favor tonight is a rather lackluster 28-29 record for the Braves against southpaws.

One injury note for the Braves concerns catcher Brian McCann. The backstop is not expected to be in the lineup on Monday as he deals with some soreness in his right hamstring. Look for a Tuesday or possibly Wednesday return for the 6-time all-star.

Atlanta has owned the season series at 9-3, and really enjoyed playing in the Marlins' new digs with a 5-1 mark at Miami. One of the wins on this diamond was Hudson's July 24 start opposite LeBlanc. The totals have split in the previous six games played at Marlins Park.

A -135 price on Hudson almost seems too good to pass up, even with his up-&-down performance of late. Maybe it is too good to be true, but count me among those falling into the trap if it is, as I am adding the Braves to my MLB picks in this series opener.

My pick: Braves -135