MLB Picks: Braves vs. Phillies

Philly evened this series with a 3-0 victory Tuesday night, getting a two-run homer from Ryan Howard and a complete-game shut-out from Cole Hamels. With Hudson and Kendrick taking the mound tonight, who should you back?

Last night's setback means that Atlanta lost a game to division-leading Washington in the NL East standings, and now trails by four games. However, the Braves remain 2.5 games clear of the field in the NL Wild-Card race. 

The Phillies won Tuesday as -135 chalk on the MLB odds board, and the game stayed 'under' its total of 7.5, as we hoped it would. 

Despite the loss Atlanta still leads the season series with Philly eight games to three. 

Wednesday's Pitching Matchup 

Hudson is only nine-for-18 on quality starts this year; we thought he'd be better than that. He is, however, three for his last four. Most recently Hudson held Houston scoreless on four hits through 7 1/3 innings, and over his last four outings he's allowed just seven ER through 27 1/3 innings. 

In his two starts this year against Philly Hudson has given up two ER in 12 2/3 innings. 

Kendrick, back in the rotation after the trade of Joe Blanton, is five-for-14 on quality starts this season. His last time out he gave up two ER on five hits in four innings against Arizona last Friday. But before that, in seven relief appearances coming out of the All-Star break, Kendrick had thrown a cumulative eight innings of shut-out ball. 

In one start and one relief appearance against Atlanta this season Kendrick hasn't allowed a run through 7 1/3 innings. 

The Braves are 14-4 in Hudson's starts this season, while the Phillies are 4-10 in Kendrick's starts. 

Wednesday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of Wednesday AM most baseball betting shops were listing Atlanta at around -145 for Wednesday's game, with a total of eight. The Braves could also be played at upwards of +115 on the run line at some outlets. 

Early action on Wednesday's game has seen about 65 percent of play on the side going toward the Braves, and about 55 percent of play on the total going toward the 'under.'

Free MLB Pick

Hudson has been solid this season against the Phillies, but Kendrick hasn't been too bad against Atlanta. So in a game we see as closer to a pick 'em than the betting line indicates we'll go with Philly and the home dog price.

The Braves have now beaten the Phillies seven times in a row. 

Also, Atlanta pitching has now held 11 of its last 14 foes to two runs or less.

Tuesday's Pitching Matchup 

A couple of lefties go at it Tuesday night as Cole Hamels (11-6, 3.34) goes for Philly against Mike Minor (6-7, 5.01) for Atlanta.

Minor is only seven-for-20 on quality starts this year, but he's working on a string of four in a row. And that doesn't count his last time out, last Friday against Miami, when with a 6-0 lead in the fourth inning a rain delay put an early end to his night. 

Over his last five outings Minor has allowed just six ER on 18 hits in 31 innings, walking six and striking out 27. So after a rough first couple months of this season maybe Minor has found a groove. 

In his only start this year against the Phillies, last weekend, Minor picked up a win, giving up just one run on four hits over eight innings, walking none and whiffing nine.

Hamels, meanwhile, is 13-for-21 on quality starts this year, but only two for his last five. His last time out Hamels gave up three runs in seven innings against Washington last Thursday, walking one and striking out nine. But over his last five starts he's allowed 16 ER on 35 hits in 34 2/3 innings. Not bad, but not great, either.

In his two starts this year against Atlanta, including a losing effort 10 days ago, Hamels has given up five ER on 10 hits through 11 innings.

Tuesday's Betting Odds

As of Tuesday morning most online sportsbooks were listing the Phillies as favorites of around -140, with an 'over/under' of 7.5. 

In early betting on Tuesday's game action on the side has been split about right down the middle, while play on the total has leaned toward the 'under' by nearly a 60/40 margin.

Free MLB Pick 

The Phillies let us down Monday night, and we're leery of taking them for Tuesday. On the other hand we're tempted by the Braves with the underdog price, until we see that they're just 18-22 this season against left-handed starting pitchers. So instead, we'll go with the 'under' 7.5 runs for Tuesday's game.

Braves vs. Phillies: The Situation 

Atlanta just took two of three games from Houston over the weekend, winning Sunday 6-1. The Braves have now won four series in a row, 10 of their last 12 games and 20 of their last 27. 

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has won its last two series, after taking two of three games from Arizona over the weekend. 

So while Atlanta, at 62-46, sits three games back of first-place Washington in the NL East, they also continue to own one of the two NL Wild-Card spots, 2.5 games clear of the third-place Cardinals. 

Philly, meanwhile, at 49-59, is still 12.5 games out of the nearest playoff berth. 

Monday's Pitching Matchup 

Atlanta will go with Ben Sheets (3-1, 1.46) for Monday's series opener, while Philly will counter with Vance Worley (6-6, 3.63). 

Sheets is three-for-four on quality starts this season since joining the Braves less than a month ago. Most recently, Sheets gave up three earned runs on 11 hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 4-2 Atlanta loss to Miami last Wednesday, but so far the former Brewer has allowed just four ER and 24 hits in 25 innings, walking six and striking out 23. 

In his one start this season vs. the Phillies, Sheets held them to one run on six hits through six innings of a 6-1 Braves victory 10 days ago. 

Worley is nine-for-18 on quality starts this year. In his most recent outing last Wednesday vs. the Nationals, Worley allowed two unearned runs on six hits through seven innings of a 3-2 Philly win, although in his two starts previous to that, he'd allowed nine runs in 11 1/3 innings. 

On the season Worley has given up more hits, 115, than innings pitched, 109, and the OVERS/UNDERS are 12-6 in his starts. 

In his only outing this year vs. Atlanta, Worley gave up three runs on seven hits through six innings of a 4-3 Philly loss back one month ago. 

Monday's Betting Odds 

As of early Monday morning, Atlanta with Sheets could be gotten at -115 at a couple of online sportsbooks, while Philly with Worley could be had at +113 at 5Dimes. 

The Braves could also be played on the run line at +145 at a couple of baseball betting outlets. 

And most book are listing the total on Monday's game at 8.5. 

Early betting on Monday's game has seen about two-thirds of play on the side go down on the Braves, while about 65 percent of action on the total has come in on the 'under.' 

Atlanta is a solid 30-20 on the road this season, while Philly is just 23-30 at home. 

The Phillies are 63-42 on the OVERS/UNDERS this season, and Phillies home games have leaned toward the OVERS by a 30-20 margin. 

The Braves lead the season series with the Phillies seven games to two, with the totals going 2-6-1, as these games have trended low-scoring. 

Personnel Notes 

Atlanta IF Chipper Jones is questionable for Monday's game as he deals with some private issues. The Braves are 14-15 this year without Chipper in the lineup. 

Free MLB Pick 

The Phillies signaled their motivations for the rest of this season with the recent trades of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. But that doesn't mean they wouldn't love to cause some headaches for Atlanta. So, in handicapping a game that looks pretty darn close to a pick 'em we'll go with the home dog here and back Philly.