MLB Picks: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox and Cubs occupy opposite ends of the standings as they begin this season's second edition of the Windy City Showdown Monday night at The Cell. Matt Garza gets the start for the Cubs while Zach Stewart takes the mound for the Sox.

The Chicago Cubs have won a series. Dare they dream about breaking out the brooms?

The Cubbies, who hadn't won a series in three weeks, shoot for a sweep Wednesday  when they take on the White Sox at the Cell in the final game of this season's edition of the Windy City Showdown (8:10 pm Eastern, WGN). 

The Northsiders drubbed the Sox 12-3 Monday night, then won again Tuesday, beating Jake Peavy 2-1, to claim their first series victory since sweeping three games from San Diego May 28-30. 

The Cubs won Monday as a +110 underdog on the MLB betting board, and while getting +190 Tuesday. So for the series they're up $300, while Sox backers are out $330, based on those theoretical $100 wagers. 

In losing their last three games the White Sox have fallen out of the lead in the AL Central. They now trail Cleveland by a half-game.

Meanwhile, the Cubs …, well, it doesn't really matter. Let's just say they're 20 games under .500 and just happy to be screwing with the Sox for a few days. 

Wednesday's Pitching Matchup

The Cubs will send Randy Wells (1-1, 4.50) to the mound Wednesday against Gavin Floyd (4-7, 5.63) for the White Sox. 

Wells, throwing in place of the injured Ryan Dempster, has started twice earlier this season, throwing five innings vs. the Reds and 3 2/3 vs. the Phillies, allowing six runs on nine hits and nine walks in 8 2/3 innings total. The Cubs lost both those games. 

Floyd hasn't exactly been wonderful himself; he's started 13 games this year and has only five what we'd call quality outings. He's also been extra-lousy lately, allowing at least four earned runs each of his last six starts. Over his last 30 1/3 innings Floyd has been tagged for 49 hits and 35 runs. Not surprisingly the White Sox have won just one of his last six starts, and they needed seven runs to win that one. On the year Wells has allowed 24 hits in 22 innings, walked 16 and only struck out 11. So the Cubbies are scraping near the bottom of their staff for this start. 

On the season Floyd has given up 80 hits, including 15 homers, in 77 innings.   

Wednesday's Betting Odds 

As of Wednesday morning the best price we could find on the White Sox was the -168 being offered at Pinnacle, while the best number on the Cubs was the +160 at The Greek. 

Pinnacle is also listing the best price on the Sox on the run line, +116. 

Finally, most shops list the total on Wednesday's game at ten.

Cubs vs. White Sox Free MLB Pick for Wednesday

We're not sure who's going to win this game. We're leery of the idea of the Cubs sweeping this series, but we're also very concerned about putting money on a guy who's been getting bombed to the degree  Floyd has been lately. So instead we'll look to the total here and, while its a big number, go with the 'OVER' for our free MLB pick for Wednesday,

The Cubbies grabbed the first game of this series Monday night 12-3, banging five homers and getting a quality start from Matt Garza.

The Cubs also nabbed at least a little revenge Monday night, drubbing the Sox after getting swept by them at Wrigley Field a month ago. 

The White Sox have now lost 10 of their last 15 games, and seen their lead in the AL Central shrink to a half-game over second-place Cleveland. 

If that outfit from the North Side can win one of the last two games of this series, it will be their first series victory since sweeping three games from San Diego May 28-30. Since then, they're 0-5 in series and 5-12 overall. 

Lefty Travis Wood (0-3, 4.58) hits the hill Tuesday for the Cubs vs. Jake Peavy (6-2, 2.91) for the Sox. 

By our strict standards Wood is just one-for-six on quality starts this year, and the Cubs have only won two of those games. He had his best outing of the year three starts ago, holding the (light-hitting) Giants to one run in seven innings, but over his last two starts he's allowed six runs on 14 hits in 11 1/3 innings. 

For the season Wood's 1.25 WHIP isn't bad, but the seven homers in 35 innings hasn't helped. 

Peavy has 10 quality starts out of 13 tries this year, and the White Sox are 9-4 in those games. He's coming off a great outing in which he held the Cardinals to one run in seven innings; unfortunately his own bats got him nothing and Chicago lost 1-0. 

Over his last three starts Peavy has allowed just five ER on 12 hits in 19 1/3 innings. He beat the Cubs May 20 by allowing squat on three hits through 6 1/3 innings. 

Peavy has just been solid from the start this season, and overall has given up just 65 hits in 90 innings, walking 22 and striking out 78. 

Cubs vs. White Sox: Tuesday Betting Lines 

For Tuesday's game many online sportsbooks opened the White Sox as -190 favorites, then promptly bumped them to -200, as early action came in on a 72-28 percent lean toward the Southsiders. 

The total on this game sits at 8.5 at most baseball betting shops, and early action on that was leaning 55-45 toward the 'over.' 

The Sox can also be gotten at upwards of +110 at some shops giving the run and a half on the run line. 

Cubs vs. White Sox Free Pick

We were on the Cubs Monday as +110 underdogs, but we just can't recommend taking them two days in a row. The White Sox have won by two or more runs seven times this season out of Peavy's 13 starts, and we're hoping they can do it again. We'll take the Sox on the run line Tuesday.

Setting the scene for this series, the Cubbies just dropped two of three games to Boston to finish off a 2-4 homestand. 

The White Sox, meanwhile, just blew a game Sunday in L.A. to the Dodgers to complete a 2-4 road trip. 

So, at 22-44, the Cubs are in last place in the AL Central, 16.5 games behind first-place Cincinnati. At this point, the Cubbies are just trying to save some face for this season. 

Over on the other side of the standings, the White Sox, at 35-31, lead the AL Central by a game and a half over second-place Cleveland. 

Looking at Monday's series opener (8:10 pm Eastern) Matt Garza (2-5, 4.05) gets the start for the Cubs against pinch-starter Zach Stewart (1-1, 5.18) for the Sox. 

Garza may not have great numbers on the surface for this season, but he is seven-for-12 on quality starts, has allowed just 59 hits in 71 innings and owns a 66/21 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. Most recently, Garza, a former American Leaguer with the Rays and Twins, gave up five runs (three earned) on seven hits in six innings vs. Detroit, and over his last three outings he's allowed seven ER on 16 hits in 18 innings. 

The Cubs have lost Garza's last seven starts, but when you're giving up one run in five innings and two runs in six innings, it's not all your fault. 

The OVERS/UNDERS are 8-4 in Garza's starts this year, but while some of that is his own doing, a good part of it is also thanks to the Cubbies bullpen. Garza gave up two runs to Washington, but the pen then gave up five; he allowed one run to the Brewers, but the pen then allowed seven; he allowed two runs to Philly but the pen gave up seven. All three of those games went OVER on the totals. 

Stewart started 11 games last year for the Sox and Blue Jays, but has pitched exclusively out of the pen this year. In 17 appearances, he's given up 32 hits and six homers in 24 innings, and over his last four appearances, he's given up six ER on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings. So, we're not sure you could say Stewart “earned” this start. But with John Danks hurt, the ChiSox gotta send somebody out there Monday night. 

Stewart also had a rough appearances vs. the Cubs at Wrigley Field a month ago, giving up four runs and two homers in one inning.  

A quick perusal of the baseball betting odds pages early Monday morning revealed Matchbook.com was offering the Sox at -118 for Monday night's game, and giving the Cubs +117. 

Most online sportsbooks were listing the total on this game at 8.5. 

Also, Bookmaker.eu was pricing the White Sox at +170 on the run line, while Matchbook was giving the Cubs the run and a half at -173.  

As of Monday morning Bovada.lv is chalking the White Sox at -190 to win this series, with the Cubs getting +155 as the underdog.

The Cubs are a ML-worst 8-25 on the road this season. 

But as bad as the Cubbies have been this season, they're 37-29 on the run line, because of their ML-leading 44 losses a ML-leading 17 of them have come by one run. 

The White Sox have been even better playing the run-and-a-half game, going 41-25 vs. the run lines, because of their 35 wins, only seven have come by one run. 

In early betting on Monday's game play on the side has leaned by a 79-21 percent margin toward the Sox, while about 55 percent of action on the total has come in on the UNDER/

These teams have already met once this season, a month ago at Wrigley Field, when the White Sox began a 13-1 run by sweeping three games from the Cubs. Humber beat Samardzija in the first game 3-2; Danks beat Dempster in the second game 7-4; and Peavy defeated Maholm 6-0 for the sweep.

The Cubs could get some good news Monday with the return of C Geovany Soto, who's missed the last month after having his knee cut. 

Cubs vs. White Sox Free Pick 

We don't like the idea of putting money down on the worst team in baseball, but we've also been fans of Garza, and believe he's been pitching in bad luck. So, we'll back the Cubs Monday.