MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Giants

Is it too early in this MLB season to call a series “big” or “key” or “important?” What the hell, we'll do it anyway, as we refer to the Los Angeles Dodgers' trip North for three games with the surging San Francisco Giants starting Monday night.

We knew Matt Kemp's absence would have an affect on the Dodgers' ability to score runs. But lately it's been getting ridiculous. 

L.A. has gotten shut-out the first two games of its series in San Francisco, and has seen a divisional lead that was once eight games shrink to just one. 

Monday night the Dodgers got blanked by Barry Zito and two relievers 8-0. Tuesday night LA got goose-egged by Ryan Vogelsong and two other relievers in a 2-0 Giants victory.  

So, Los Angeles has scored a total of 13 runs in losing seven of its last eight games. 

San Fran won as a -115 favorite Monday night and as +105 home dogs Tuesday. 

Also, while Monday's game sneaked OVER its total of 7.5, Tuesday's bout stayed UNDER its total of six. 

The Dodgers will send Chad Billingsley (4-6, 4.15) to the mound in hopes of staving off the sweep Wednesday (3:45 pm Eastern) against the struggling Tim Lincecum (2-8, 6.07) for the Giants. 

Billingsley, by our strict standards, has just six quality starts this year out of 15 tries, and only two out of his last 10. In his latest outing Billingsley gave up six earned runs on 10 hits in five innings vs. the Angels, and just before that he allowed four ER on eight hits in six innings vs. the White Sox. 

Billingsley hasn't been too great vs. the Giants lately, either. In one start this year and four last year vs. San Francisco, Billingsley has been tagged for 17 ER on 34 hits in 26 1/3 innings. The Dodgers lost three of those five games. 

Lincecum, meanwhile, has just two quality starts this year out of 15 tries. His most recent outing was actually one of his better performances of this season, and he still gave up three ER on three hits and four walks in six innings vs. the A's. Over his last four starts Lincecum has allowed 17 ER in 22 2/3 innings. 

Over the last season and a half Lincecum hasn't been too bad vs. L.A., giving up 11 ER on 38 hits in 39 1/3 innings. But because of some terrible run support the Giants have lost five of Lincecum's last six starts vs. the Dodgers. 

As of a Wednesday morning perusal of the baseball betting odds pages, the best price we found on San Francisco for Wednesday's game was the -126 at Matchbook, while the best line available on LA was the +124 at Bet365. 

The Giants can also be played on the run line at +175 at Bookmaker. 

Finally, most online baseball betting outlets are pegging Wednesday's game with an OVER/UNDER of six. But for those who like the OVER Bookmaker is listing the total at 5.5. 

The OVERS/UNDERS are a combined 22-6 in games started by Billingsley and Lincecum this season.

MLB Free Pick for Wednesday 

We missed on the Dodgers Monday night, but hit on the Giants Tuesday. For Wednesday we're thinking that if Lincecum is going to get his act together this season, maybe a start vs. LA will help. So we'll go with San Francisco for our free pick on Wednesday.

This series is the story of a team that jumped out to a big lead in its division, but is now coming back to the field. How will the Dodgers fare, both on the field and on the MLB betting lines? 

The Giants jumped all over Dodgers starter Nathan Eovaldi Monday night, scoring four times in the first and three times in the second on their way to an 8-0 whitewash. San Fran won as a -115 favorite Monday, and the game went 'over' its total of eight when the Giants tallied one last run in the bottom of the fifth inning.

So LA's lead in the NL West is now down to two games over San Francisco.

The Dodgers will look to Clayton Kershaw (5-3, 2.73) to get this series to even Tuesday, while Ryan Vogelsong (6-3, 2.41) will go for the Giants.

Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Kershaw is 10-for-15 in quality starts this season, and the Dodgers have won 10 of his 15 starts. His last time out Kershaw held Oakland to one run on three hits in eight innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed eight earned runs in 21 innings.

Kershaw has been a pain in the ass to the Giants lately. Over six starts last year and one this year vs. San Fran he's given up just seven ER on 34 hits covering 50 innings. The Dodgers won five of those seven games.

Vogelsong, meanwhile, is a super 11-for-13 in quality starts, and San Francisco is 9-4 when he's started. In his latest outing he held the Angels to three runs in seven innings last Wednesday. And he's been a horse, going at least seven innings in nine of his last 10 starts.

In one start this year and three last year vs. the Dodgers Vogelsong gave up a total of eight ER on 33 hits through 27 innings. The Giants won three of those games.

Most online sportsbooks are listing LA and Kershaw as -120 road favorites for Tuesday's game, with an 'over/under' of six.

Free MLB Pick for Tuesday 

We were “just a bit outside” on Monday's game, backing LA because we liked Eovaldi. Those four first-inning runs by the Giants felt like a kick in the stomach. As for Tuesday we're tempted by the great numbers Kershaw has put up against San Francisco, but instead we'll go with the home dog and take the Giants.

Los Angeles just dropped two of three games in Anaheim over the weekend, and that was after getting swept three games in Oakland. So, the Dodgers have lost five of their last six games. 

The Giants, meanwhile, just took a series in Oakland, but they're probably kicking themselves for missing out on the sweep, after blowing Sunday's game on a game-winning three-run homer by A's rookie Derek Norris in the bottom of the ninth.

So, LA's lead in the NL West, which got as high as eight games back in May, is now down to three games over San Fran. Which puts the Giants a sweep away from a first-place tie. 

Overall, the Dodgers have performed admirably without MVP candidate Matt Kemp, who was only hitting .355 with 12 homers when he went back on the DL May 31. During his first stint on the DL this season, LA went 9-5, and it went 10-8 in the first 18 games of Kemp's second stint on the injured list. But, you had to figure his absence would eventually be felt, and that would appear to be the case now, as the Dodgers have scored a total of 13 runs over their last six games. 

Throw in the sore shoulder that's kept Ted Lilly out of the rotation the last month, and it's little wonder LA is struggling. 

Los Angeles will send Nathan Eovaldi (0-3, 2.35) to the hill Monday night against Barry Zito (5-5, 4.35) for San Francisco. Clayton Kershaw (5-3, 2.73) will go for LA Tuesday against Ryan Vogelsong (6-3, 2.41). Finally, Chad Billingsley (4-6, 4.15) will start Wednesday's series finale for the Dodgers vs. Tim Lincecum (2-8, 6.07) for SF.

Eovaldi has nary a victory to his credit this season, but that's not his fault. The 22-year-old is three-for-five on quality starts this year, has allowed eight ER on 28 hits in 31 innings, and given up just two homers. But the Dodgers have lost all five of his starts this year, by scores of 2-1, 3-2, 1-0, 2-1 and 4-1.  

Meanwhile Zito is just five-for-14 on quality starts this season, and 0-for-3 over his last three outings, including a bombing at the hands of the Angels last Tuesday. After beating the Cubs June 3 Zito's ERA sat at 2.98; since then he's been tagged for 17 earned runs on 23 hits in just 14 1/3 innings. 

On the season Zito has given up 78 hits in 81 innings, but his 45/36 K/BB ratio does nothing to inspire. 

Zito has started once vs. the Dodgers this year, back in early May, giving up three ER on eight hits in six innings of a 9-1 Giants defeat. 

As of late Monday morning most online sportsbooks are listing Zito and the Giants as about -110 favorites for Monday night's game, with an 'over/under' of 7.5. 

Looking a little more long-term Bovada.lv is lining San Francisco at -130 to win this series, with the Dodgers “getting” +100 as the underdog. 

These rivals have met once earlier this season, back in early May, when LA took two of three games from San Fran at Dodger Stadium. Vogelsong beat Kershaw in the middle game of that series 2-1, while Billingsley beat Lincecum 6-2 in the rubber match. 

Free MLB Pick for Monday