MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Marlins

Hanley Ramirez returns to his former stomping grounds when he and his new team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, make a stop in Miami for three games with the Marlins this weekend. Who do we like for an MLB betting pick for Saturday's matchup?

Miami got this series to even with a 7-3 win Saturday night, scoring four in the fifth inning and three in the eighth.

The Marlins won Saturday as +115 home underdogs on the MLB lines board, and the game, as we hoped it would, sneaked 'over' its total of eight.

With the loss, and a San Francisco victory Saturday, the Dodgers have dropped back to second place in the NL West, a game behind the Giants.

Saturday's Pitching Matchup

A pair of lefties hit the hill Saturday as LA goes with Chris Capuano (10-8, 3.29) against Miami's Wade LeBlanc (1-1, 1.50).

Capuano is 14-for-23 on quality starts this season, and the Dodgers are 13-10 in games he's started. His last time out he gave up two runs in seven innings against  Colorado, but in his two starts previous to that he got clipped for 11 runs in 10 1/3 innings.

On the season Cappy has allowed fewer hits, 133, than innings pitched, 142, and owns a 125/42 K/BB ratio.

This will be Capuano's first start against the Marlins this season; last year, pitching for the Mets, Capuano made six appearances against Miami, giving up 19 ER and 35 hits in 29 innings.

On the other side of this matchup LeBlanc will be making his third start of this season, to go along with 11 relief appearances. Most recently he held the Mets to one run in four innings, and just before that he held the Braves to one run in 4 1/3 innings. On the year, or should we say since joining the Fish five weeks ago, LeBlanc has allowed just four runs and 22 hits in 24 innings, walked six and struck out 17.

This will be LeBlanc's first appearance against the Dodgers this year; last year, pitching for the Padres, LeBlanc faced LA twice, allowing six ER in 13 innings.

Sunday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of Sunday morning most online sportsbooks were listing Los Angeles at around -125, with an 'over/under' of eight. The Dodgers could also be found at upwards of +130 on the run lines at several books. 

Early betting on Sunday's game has seen over 60 percent of play on the side come in on LA, while almost 60 percent of the action on the total come down on the 'under.' 

The 'over/unders' are a combined 9-16 in games started by Capuano and LeBlanc this season. 

Free MLB Pick 

We don't have a strong opinion on the side on this game. In looking at the total, neither of these starting pitchers are strangers to Sunday's opponents, so we're leaning toward the 'OVER.' But we're going to check the lineup card as game-time approaches, just to make sure guys like Kemp and Ramirez and a few others on it.

LA took the opener of this series Friday night 5-2, behind a quality start from Clay Kershaw and a couple of RBI from former Marlin Hanley Ramirez. 

The Dodgers won Friday as -160 favorites on the MLB betting line, and the game 'pushed' its total of seven. 

Los Angeles also covered on the run line at a price of +105. 

So with San Francisco's loss to Colorado later Friday night, the Dodgers are now tied with the Giants for first place in the NL West. 

Saturday's Pitching Matchup 

LA will throw recently acquired Joe Blanton (8-9, 4.52) Saturday against Ricky Nolasco (8-11, 4.95) for Miami. 

Blanton is 10-for-22 on quality starts this season, but four for his last four. In his debut for his new team last week against the Cubs Blanton allowed two runs on five hits through six innings, and over his last four starts (the previous three with the Phillies) he's given up nine earned runs and 22 hits in 29 innings.

For the season Blanton has allowed more hits, 146, than innings pitched, 139, and been tagged for 23 homers, but his K/BB ratio is excellent, at 120/21.

Blanton has started three times already this season against the Marlins, giving up nine ER on 18 hits over 19 innings.

Warming up over in the other bullpen Nolasco is only eight-for-22 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last five. Most recently Nolasco allowed four runs on eight hits through six innings against Washington last Sunday, and over his last five starts he's given up 22 ER and 37 hits in 27 2/3 innings. 

This will be Nolasco's first start this year against LA; last year, in two starts against the Dodgers, he got bombed for 11 ER and 22 hits over 11 1/3 innings. 

Saturday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of Saturday morning most online sportsbooks were listing Los Angeles at around -125, with Miami getting +115. The Dodgers could also be gotten at upwards of +135 on the run line at some baseball betting outlets.

And most shops are listing the total on Saturday's game at eight. 

Free MLB Pick

We're not sure who's going to win this game; instead, we'll add the 'OVER' eight on to our MLB picks.

Dodgers vs. Marlins: The Series Set-Up

Los Angeles just dropped two of three games at home to Colorado, avoiding the sweep with a 6-4 victory Wednesday. Now they travel cross-country to begin a 10-game road trip. 

So the Dodgers, at 60-52, sit in second place in the NL West, one game back of first-place San Francisco. LA also trails Pittsburgh, which owns the second NL Wild-Card spot, by 3.5 games. 

Miami, meanwhile, at 51-61, is trying to avoid “earning” the title as the most disappointing team in baseball this season. We were high on the Marlins earlier this season, especially during their wonderful month of May. But since then the Fish have gone in the tank, and cost us cash on several occasions. 

Miami just took two of three games from the Mets in New York, but that just got them to 4-7 on a just-completed road trip. 

Friday's Pitching Matchup 

It's Clay Kershaw's turn in the rotation for LA Friday night, while Mark Buehrle will start for Miami. 

Kershaw (9-6, 2.88) is 16-for-23 on quality starts this year, and four for his last five. His last time out he held the Cubs to one run on three hits through seven innings, and before that he threw a five-hit shut-out against the Giants. 

On the season the reigning NL Cy Young winner has allowed 122 hits in 156 innings, and owns a K/BB ratio of nearly 4/1, at 150/41. 

Kershaw hasn't faced the Marlins this season; last year he went 1-1 against Miami, giving up four ER in 14 1/3 innings. 

On the other side of this left-handed duel, Mark Buehrle is 12-for-22 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last four. Most recently Buehrle gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings vs. the Nationals, and before that he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings vs. the Braves. Over his last four starts Buehrle has been tagged for 16 ER in 20 1/3 innings. So we're wondering if maybe he's running out of gas for this season.

This will be Buehrle's first start against LA this year; last year, pitching for the White Sox, Buehrle got a win against the Dodgers, holding them to two runs through seven innings. 

Friday's Betting Odds and Trends

As of Friday morning the best price we could find on Los Angeles for Friday night's game was the -145 being offered at Matchbook, while Miami could be gotten at +140 at several online sportsbooks.

The Dodgers could also be played at +114 on the run line at Matchbook.

And most baseball betting shops are listing the total on Friday's game at seven.

Early betting on this game has seen about 60 percent of play on the side come in on LA, while action on the total has split just about right down the middle.

It's almost hard to believe, considering we're into the second week in August, but this will be the first time these two teams have met this season.

Hanley Update

Ramirez has had a couple of big hits in his 14 games with the Dodgers, but overall he's only hitting .226 since joining LA, and is just six for his last 37 at-bats.

Free MLB Pick

This game comes down to the simple equation, matching one team in the thick of the playoff hunt vs. another team playing out the string. Oh, yeah, and one team is throwing the reigning Cy Young winner. So we'll add the Dodgers to our MLB picks, at a not-too-prohibitive price, on Friday, and we're tempted to take them on the run line.