San Francisco's Matt Cain looks to rebound from a bad outting as he takes the mound tonight against Mike Leake and the Cincinnati Reds. Find out why we believe that this matchup's total holds the best value for MLB bettors.
Joe Freda’s 2012 MLB Record: 31-28-1 (+2.17 ROI)
The San Francisco Giants logged a 5-0 victory in Thursday night’s
opener against the Cincinnati Reds, cashing as 115 home favorites. San Francisco’s Gregor Blanco and Pablor
Sandoval drove in one run each, while starter Madison Bumgarner went the
nine-inning distance with a one-hitter.
Friday’s rematch has two right-handed hurlers slated with San
Francisco’s Matt Cain (9-2, 2.27 ERA) opposing Cincinnati’s Mike Leake (2-5,
4.46 ERA). Top baseball sports books opened Cain as a
155 home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at a flat 6 ½.
Cain outdueled in
Oakland
Cain saw an eight-win streak snapped in Sunday’s 4-2 defeat for
San Francisco as a 145 road favorite against the Oakland Athletics. The 27-year-old allowed one run on three
hits, lasting seven innings.
Giants catcher Buster Posey drove in both of his squad’s runs,
cracking a homer as part of a 1-for-3 day. Posey’s mates Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan were held to a combined
0-for-8, leaving four men on base.
The contest’s combined six runs ducked below the closing ‘total’
of seven, ending a 3-0 run for the OVER in Cain’s prior trio of starts. Giants reliever Santiago Casilla recorded his
second blown save, allowing a walkoff homer from Oakland’s Derek Norris.
Cain's dominating performances this year has led capper Joe Catalano to add him and the Giants to his baseball picks of the day.
Leake stingy at home
Leake picked up a fourth straight no-decision in Sunday’s 4-3
setback for Cincinnati as a 147 MLB odds favorite against the Minnesota Twins. The third-year hurler gave up two runs over
eight innings, allowing five hits.
Cincinnati’s Joey Votto and Devin Mesoraco united to hit 3-for-6,
with Votto drilling his 14th homer of the year. Reds leadoff man Chris Heisey went 0-for-5,
while mate Brandon Phillips had an 0-for-3 day from the cleanup spot.
The battle’s combined seven runs dipped below the ‘total’ of nine,
bringing the UNDER to 3-2 in Leake’s last five outings. Reds closer Aroldis Chapman allowed two late
runs, leading to his fourth blown save.
Back the OVER in San
Fran
Friday’s first pitch is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. (ET). The weather forecast in San Francisco calls
for a 60 degree night, with 15-20 mph winds blowing out to left field.
I am adding the OVER in this matchup to my evening’s MLB picks,
looking for both lineups to get their share of slugging in despite facing tight
starters.
Cain gave up two homers in April’s outing against the Reds,
helping OVER backers collect in a 9-2 triumph for Cincinnati. Reds outfielder Ryan Ludwick has had Cain’s
number, drilling three long balls in a 7-for-19 career mark.
Leake had a pair of solid outings against the Giants last year,
but has had a shaky history against some of Bruce Bochy’s club. San Francisco’s Buster Posey has one homer in
just four career at-bat’s facing Leake, while mate Pablo Sandoval has notched a
long ball as part of a 5-for-7 lifetime stretch.
The OVER has cashed at 5-2 in Leake’s last seven starts against clubs with
winning records, while going 3-1 in Cain’s last four outings at AT&T
Park. Look for the octane to rise here
from Friday’s opener, with the OVER getting the money at 16-7 in San
Francisco’s last 23 spots that followed scoring five runs or more.
My Pick: Take the OVER