The New York Mets will send R.A. Dickey to the mound tonight to face off against the Rockies' rookie, Alex White. While this could be seen as a no brainer for most bettors, find out why I have decided to lean the other way with my MLB picks tonight.
5* graded play on the Rockies as
they take on the Mets set to start at 7:10 PM ET.
This is an otherwise
meaningless game with both teams, especially the Rockies, very much out of the
playoff race in the National League. However, a knuckleballer, who has been
known only by the most avid of baseball fans, is fast becoming the National
League Cy Young favorite in 2012.
The Mets have had a very tough
road since the all star break and their lack of depth has been exposed. R.A.
Dickey is one of many bright spots for the Mets this season, who were expected
to lose 100 games this season. The Mets, though are in third place in the NL
East division and trail the Washington Nationals by 18 games. They have been
outscored by their opponents by 31 runs this season.
The Rockies have had a tumultuous
season and only Houston has a worse record for the season. They have been
outscored by their opponents by 114 runs. They have posted a 20-34 record,
which is nearly identical to their 26-30 record; where they are suppose to have
a home field advantage in mile-high Denver. So, they are just not a good team
this year, but they are professionals fully capable of winning games.
Colorado is getting a boat load
of value simply because the public is now fully on board the R.A. Dickey
bandwagon. This is not to say he is not worthy of being a favorite, but my work
simply shows that he should be at least 50 points lower than what the MLB odds makers are offering.
R.A. Dickey
It is hard to wager against the
heroic story of R.A. Dickey and how he overcame an unimaginable amount of
adversity and abuse to reach the top of the mountain where he is now in his
life. However, the mountainous line of this game is where our focus will be.
He throws a knuckleball 86% of
all pitches thrown and the speed of that pitch will vary between 54 and 82 MPH.
Obviously, the pitch wavers and flutters all over the place and is difficult to
hit by its’ own merit. However, what makes Dickey even hard to hit is that he
has a fastball that he can throw for strikes or for setup situations that
varies between 79 and 86 MPH. The ability to throw the fastball in the 80’s in
was makes the knuckleball even more devastating to hitters. Dickey also has one of the best FIP's in the Major Leagues.
His last start set season highs
for hits allowed and home runs allowed with three in the Mets 6-1 loss to the
Reds last Wednesday. Batters are beginning to sit on his fastball, which is
quite hittable. Dickey has allowed a .305 batting average on the fastball and
even the batting average allowed on the knuckleball has risen to a season high
.242.
Colorado may have a poor
record on the season, but they are a sound hitting team. They rank fourth in
MLB with a .272 team batting average, fifth averaging 4.78 runs per game, and
third averaging 9.38 hits per game. Dickey has allowed a .293 batting average
and .330 on-base-percentage to the current members of the Rockies in their
respective careers spanning 208 at-bats. They are fully capable of lighting up
Dickey and getting a win in this game.
Alex White will start for
Colorado and he has posted a 5.64 ERA with a 1.88 WHIP in 14 starts on the
season. In his three starts in August, he has posted much better numbers with
3.63 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP spanning 17 ? innings of work. He has an excellent
fastball that can top out above 95 MPH at times and augments that strength with
a strong late-breaking slider that he can vary between 79 and 89 MPH. He has a
nice split finger pitch too that he will throw 19% of all pitches thrown to left-handed
batters and 10% to right-handed batters.
At 23-years, Alex White is on a
huge MLB learning curve and he is steadily pitching better with each series of
starts. In fact, at this time, he is pitching better baseball than Dickey, in
my opinion, and Colorado has a vastly superior offensive attack.
Just seeing Dickey's name on the matchup report is usually enough to help bettors decide which way to lean with their MLB picks, but I think this only opens the door for us. Take the extra
gravy with this line and take Colorado for a 5* Titan play.
MLB Picks: Take the Rockies