SJ is locked and loaded
for Saturday MLB with plenty of picks and predictions.
MLB: 21-9-1 (+41.30 units)
NBA: 4-4-1 (-1.8 units)
2011 NFL: 48-33-7 (+34.75 units)
2011-2012 NCAA: 18-15-1 (-6.8 units)
*All bets are weighted between 1 and
Last Week (4-1, +10 units)
As any long
term bettor knows, this is a very humbling business. You have got to be able to accept the highs
and the lows with equal aplomb. But
humility is not my strong suit, and when I'm on a streak like this I just want to scream "DEAR GOD LOOK AT ME, I AM
A BEAUTIFUL GIFTED MAN!" Or perhaps
I will assume a faux British accent and imperiously declare, "I shall
release my plays only when the my subjects bow before me and behold my
this bravado is a result of combating the 'Haters' because when you swing and
miss for a few weeks, there is no shortage of keyboard assassins to remind you
just how fallible you truly are. Last
week we went 4-1 and for the second week in a row, the Texas Rangers did us in
on the run line. However, the week
before the run line saved us. The
Rangers were the big MLB odds favorites and lost the game outright, it almost felt like a
victory as we saved all that juice. But
last week, their late inning heroics propelled the Rangers to an unlikely 8-7
win and that -1 ½ run caused a perfect day to be less than that.
the covers, I forgot! Funny how we
always dwell on the losses. What do you
hear more, sports gamblers talking about their winners or their bad beats? Bad beats of course because as gamblers,
we're supposed to win because we all think we're so damn smart! Last week we cashed with the Tigers -125 over
the Twins for 3 units, Nationals -130 over the Braves for 4 units, the Yankees
-1 ½ runs (-110) for a maximum play of 5 units and we finally evened our NBA
ledger when the Celtics -5 cashed for 1 unit over the Sixers.
We are now
+41.30 units in baseball which means if you are a $100 bettor, you now have
$4130 of the man's money in your pocket. Let's try and get some more, right now.
4:05 PM ET Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
has been a beast for the Phillies this season. He is 8-1 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. And guess what? Both those numbers are lower at home. In a nutshell he's impossible to bet against
unless you are getting north of +200 on an underdog whose pitcher has had at
least some success against the Phillies.
Nolasco of the Marlins has indeed had moderate success against the Phillies in
his career he's not getting +200 and he's no Cole Hamels. Philly has won their three games against the
Marlins, including last night's 6-4 winner, and all three victories have been
by two runs or more. You know where I'm
headed here don't you? That's right, Philadelphia -1 ½ (+150) for
4:10 PM ET Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
certain teams that I don't like adding to my sports picks but have had decent success when
doing so. Enter the Seattle
Mariners. One thing about betting the
Mariners is you are usually getting the vig instead of laying it but remember
the rule about value bets. There is no
value in losing regardless of the price you're getting back.
is getting the start for Seattle and this kid has been a tough luck loser over
his last three starts. He worked eight
full innings in his last two outings and contained two American League
powerhouses from scoring more than three runs per outing when he faced the
Rangers and the Angels (both losses). Before that he faced the Indians in Cleveland and allowed only one run
over 6+ innings of work.
for Chicago has been a mess to put it bluntly. He has allowed 21 runs over his last three starts against the Indians,
Twins and Angels. But the reason the
White Sox are heavy favorites in this one is because they are the better team
and Noesi got hit hard by the South Siders on April 20th when he
could not even escape the 2nd inning. We don't believe that will happen again and
will see if our good fortune continues with the Mariners. Play
Seattle +140 for 2 units.
7:15 PM ET Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
While I am
never comfortable betting on a team like the Astros, sometimes the situation
calls for you to grin and bear it. For
the record, I am grinning and come 7:15 this evening, I will be bearing
it. I just hope I'm still grinning after
the game because I am taking a flyer on the 'Stros.
last night 4-1 to these Cincinnati Reds and have now dropped their last 7 ball
games. Yes, Houston is on a losing
streak and yes they are a sub .500 club and yes today's starter, Wandy
Rodriguez, got lit up like a Christmas tree his last time out at Coors Field in
Colorado. So what's not to like?
maybe I just made a case to bet the Reds, but hold on boys. The Astros are a surprising 16-11 at home and
as stated, Wandy Rodriguez is on the bump for Houston. The Reds have had their problems against
southpaws and Rodriguez, despite his .500 record, Rodriguez has a solid 2.33
ERA in front of the home crowd. Now I am
not going to make the leap that most handicappers love to make and assume I
know the operation of his mind after getting whacked around in Colorado.
Many touts love to say, "He'll be pissed
off and wants to show everyone that was just a bad outing." Do they know Wandy Rodriguez? Have they ever even met him? Maybe he's got a fragile ego, maybe his
confidence is shattered. I don't know
and nobody knows except Rodriguez so I will not allow myself to debate whether
or not his head is in a good place. I'm
no shrink but I do know that he pitched six solid innings of two run ball in a
6-4 victory over the Reds in April.
I also know
Mat Latos for Cincinnati is struggling on the road this season. He has a 5.40 ERA and he gave up five
homeruns in his last start against Colorado. Latos's last start against Houston came in at home where he allowed 5
runs on 10 hits yet the Reds still won 6-5 and Latos got a no decision on April
29th. The last time Latos
pitched against the Astros in Houston was last year when he allowed five runs
and lost 5-3.
Call it the due factor but I believe the Astros
will snap their losing streak and I want to make a few bucks when they do. Play
the Astros +115 for 3 units.