MLB Picks Saturday: Winnin' with Swingin'

SJ is locked and loaded for Saturday MLB with plenty of picks and predictions.

Season Record:

MLB:  21-9-1 (+41.30 units)

NBA:  4-4-1  (-1.8 units)

2011 NFL: 48-33-7 (+34.75 units)

2011-2012 NCAA: 18-15-1  (-6.8 units)

*All bets are weighted between 1 and 5 units. 

Last Week (4-1, +10 units)

As any long term bettor knows, this is a very humbling business. You have got to be able to accept the highs and the lows with equal aplomb. But humility is not my strong suit, and when I'm on a streak like this I just want to scream "DEAR GOD LOOK AT ME, I AM A BEAUTIFUL GIFTED MAN!" Or perhaps I will assume a faux British accent and imperiously declare, "I shall release my plays only when the my subjects bow before me and behold my magnificence." 

Yes, all this bravado is a result of combating the 'Haters' because when you swing and miss for a few weeks, there is no shortage of keyboard assassins to remind you just how fallible you truly are. Last week we went 4-1 and for the second week in a row, the Texas Rangers did us in on the run line. However, the week before the run line saved us. The Rangers were the big MLB odds favorites and lost the game outright, it almost felt like a victory as we saved all that juice. But last week, their late inning heroics propelled the Rangers to an unlikely 8-7 win and that -1 ½ run caused a perfect day to be less than that. 

Oh right, the covers, I forgot! Funny how we always dwell on the losses. What do you hear more, sports gamblers talking about their winners or their bad beats? Bad beats of course because as gamblers, we're supposed to win because we all think we're so damn smart! Last week we cashed with the Tigers -125 over the Twins for 3 units, Nationals -130 over the Braves for 4 units, the Yankees -1 ½ runs (-110) for a maximum play of 5 units and we finally evened our NBA ledger when the Celtics -5 cashed for 1 unit over the Sixers.

We are now +41.30 units in baseball which means if you are a $100 bettor, you now have $4130 of the man's money in your pocket. Let's try and get some more, right now. 

MLB

4:05 PM ET Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Cole Hamels has been a beast for the Phillies this season. He is 8-1 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. And guess what? Both those numbers are lower at home. In a nutshell he's impossible to bet against unless you are getting north of +200 on an underdog whose pitcher has had at least some success against the Phillies. 

While Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins has indeed had moderate success against the Phillies in his career he's not getting +200 and he's no Cole Hamels. Philly has won their three games against the Marlins, including last night's 6-4 winner, and all three victories have been by two runs or more. You know where I'm headed here don't you? That's right, Philadelphia -1 ½ (+150) for 3 units.

4:10 PM ET Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

There are certain teams that I don't like adding to my sports picks but have had decent success when doing so. Enter the Seattle Mariners. One thing about betting the Mariners is you are usually getting the vig instead of laying it but remember the rule about value bets. There is no value in losing regardless of the price you're getting back.

Hector Noesi is getting the start for Seattle and this kid has been a tough luck loser over his last three starts. He worked eight full innings in his last two outings and contained two American League powerhouses from scoring more than three runs per outing when he faced the Rangers and the Angels (both losses). Before that he faced the Indians in Cleveland and allowed only one run over 6+ innings of work. 

Gavin Floyd for Chicago has been a mess to put it bluntly. He has allowed 21 runs over his last three starts against the Indians, Twins and Angels. But the reason the White Sox are heavy favorites in this one is because they are the better team and Noesi got hit hard by the South Siders on April 20^th when he could not even escape the 2^nd inning. We don't believe that will happen again and will see if our good fortune continues with the Mariners. Play Seattle +140 for 2 units.

7:15 PM ET Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros

While I am never comfortable betting on a team like the Astros, sometimes the situation calls for you to grin and bear it. For the record, I am grinning and come 7:15 this evening, I will be bearing it. I just hope I'm still grinning after the game because I am taking a flyer on the 'Stros. 

Houston lost last night 4-1 to these Cincinnati Reds and have now dropped their last 7 ball games. Yes, Houston is on a losing streak and yes they are a sub .500 club and yes today's starter, Wandy Rodriguez, got lit up like a Christmas tree his last time out at Coors Field in Colorado. So what's not to like?

Okay, so maybe I just made a case to bet the Reds, but hold on boys. The Astros are a surprising 16-11 at home and as stated, Wandy Rodriguez is on the bump for Houston. The Reds have had their problems against southpaws and Rodriguez, despite his .500 record, Rodriguez has a solid 2.33 ERA in front of the home crowd. Now I am not going to make the leap that most handicappers love to make and assume I know the operation of his mind after getting whacked around in Colorado.

Many touts love to say, "He'll be pissed off and wants to show everyone that was just a bad outing." Do they know Wandy Rodriguez? Have they ever even met him? Maybe he's got a fragile ego, maybe his confidence is shattered. I don't know and nobody knows except Rodriguez so I will not allow myself to debate whether or not his head is in a good place. I'm no shrink but I do know that he pitched six solid innings of two run ball in a 6-4 victory over the Reds in April.

I also know Mat Latos for Cincinnati is struggling on the road this season. He has a 5.40 ERA and he gave up five homeruns in his last start against Colorado. Latos's last start against Houston came in at home where he allowed 5 runs on 10 hits yet the Reds still won 6-5 and Latos got a no decision on April 29^th. The last time Latos pitched against the Astros in Houston was last year when he allowed five runs and lost 5-3. 

Call it the due factor but I believe the Astros will snap their losing streak and I want to make a few bucks when they do. Play the Astros +115 for 3 units.