It's Sunday and most bettors are focused on the excitement that is the the NFL.
Although I have some very strong picks today in the NFL, MLB cannot be
overlooked. The playoff races are peaking and every game now has the potential
to be a season changing result for any of the contenders.
The Yankees continue to plug the
holes in the dam and lead the AL East by one game. The Oakland’ A’s have closed
to within two games of the Texas Rangers in the AL West and these two teams own
the top-2 best records in the AL. The AL Central division continues to be a
neck-and-neck battle between the Tigers and White Sox.
In the National League, there are
seven teams within six games of each other for the second wild card berth. The
Braves hold the top wild card spot with a comfortable seven game lead over the
LA Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals, who are tied for the second wild card
10* graded play on the Tampa Bay
Rays as they take on the New York Yankees set to start at 1:05 PM ET. The
Yankees got a very important 5-3 win as their starter, Nova, was sharp for the
majority of the game. This win comes on the heels of a big-time loss with C.C.
Sabathia losing to now Cy Young favorite David Price and reflects the daily ebb
and flow of the Rays, Yankees, and Orioles in the Al East.
Supporting this graded play is a
system that has produced a record of 140-115 for 55% winners making 59.6 units
per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or
higher with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities
and with the game taking place in September. This system has averaged a +125
dod play, which matches today’s line for this matchup.
This is a matchup of two starting
pitchers, who have hit the wall of fatigue from the 162-game marathon season.
Matt Moore will be on the hill for the Rays and he has posted a 4.41 ERA with a
1.531 WHIP over his last three starts. This compares to his season stats of
3.68 ERA and 1/347 WHIP reflecting that fatigue has been the large reason for
his less than average starts.
His counterpart is Hiroki Kuroda
and he has posted a 4.79 ERA with a 1.258 Whip over his last three starts. This
compares to his 3.17 ERA and 1.119 WHIp in 29 starts for the season. I like
Moore in this situation because he has far better success against teh Yankees
than Kuroda has had against the Rays. Moore is 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.418
WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees. Kuroda has posted a 1-1 record
with a horrific 6.17 ERA and a 1.885 WHIP in two career starts against the
10* graded play on the Kansas
City Royals as they host the Los Angeles Angels set to start at 2:10 PM ET. The
Angels can not afford to lose another game, but my research and simulation
projections show that the Royals have a great shot at winning this game.
Supporting Dog Playing System
Supporting this graded play is a
system that has produced a record of 92-47 for 66% winners and has made 60.1
units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on home teams that are struggling
offensive teams averaging 4.5 or less runs per game and with an overused bullpen that pitches
more than 3.2 innings per game and are now facing a decent starting pitcher
sporting an ERA ranging between 4.20 to 4.70.
Dan Haren will start for the Angels and this is
not the best of news for their playoff aspirations. He is just 1-8 losing 9.0
units per one unit wagered against the money line in road games when facing
teams whose hitters draw three walks or less per game in the second half of the
season spanning game splayed over the last three seasons.
Pick: Take Kansas City