graded play on the Cubs as they take on the Dodgers. If you play +250 of higher dogs consistently, you stand a high probability of making money over the course of the
season. L.A. is very much in the thick of the playoff race, trailing the Giants by just ½ game entering today’s action.
The Cubs have the third worst
record in the NL at 43-61 and are 16 ½ games behind in just the wild card race.
However, MLB teams are far more equal and competitive than in nearly every
sport. You may, once in a while see lines in MLB approach -300 levels, but in
the NFL and CFB, by way of example, money lines can get easily reach double
digits. So, if you saw the Philadelphia Eagles favored by 6 points, would you
think that is a lock for them to win the game? Certainly not everytime, but
that is what a +250 dog looks like in the NFL.
Point is, not to fall prey to
taking these heavy MLB favorites and assuming they are destined
for easy wins. They will certainly win more games than they lose, but given the
very high inflated lines, over time you will lose a considerable amount if you
choose to bet big-time favorites.
Supporting this graded play is a
system that has produced a record of 29-22 for just 57% winners, but has made
an incredible 45.2 units per one unit wagered since 1997. The average play for
this system has been a +232 dog play. Play on all dogs with a money
line of +200 or more and is a struggling NL hitting team batting .250 or less
and batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games, and is now facing a team
with a good bullpen posting an ERA 3.75 or less on the season.
Here is a second system that has
gone 29-21 for 58% winners and has made 31.1 units per one unit wagered since
on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a struggling hitting
team batting .250 or less with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >=
7.00 over his last five starts and is now facing a top level starting pitcher
posting an ERA of 3.10 or less and a WHIP of 1.250 or less on the season. The
average play of this system has been a solid +180 dog play.
Between these two system alone,
you can readily see the factors supporting the DOG on this play and that fact
that you must be able to identify dogs that win on a consistent basis. With my
work and research, systems only serve to reinforce the graded play from the
simulator and my fundamental research on the game situation.
Pick: Take the Cubs
Philadelphia versus Arizona
5* graded play on Philadelphia as
they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second game of this three game
series. Although I did not have a play on the game, the simple fact that
Blanton was moved to L.A. in the late afternoon had to be a bit of a shock to the
team. He was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers and Phils GM Amaro, J.r. accepted
the trade that L.A. returned. It is somewhat unusual that a waiver trade
takes place this close to the passing of the trade deadline.
Normally, when GM’s place some of
their better players on the waiver wire, it is gauge interest from
other teams about possibly making a deal happen. The team putting their player
on waivers always has the first right to pull the player back to the roster.
Then, there is the Cliff Lee claim by the Dodgers.
Jon Heyman of CBSsports.com reported
that Lee was claimed off waivers, and Jon Morisi of Fox Sports tweeted that the
Dodgers were the team that made the claim. The first and likely move, is that
the Phillies will pull Lee back off waivers, work out a trade with the Dodgers,
or allow the claiming team to assume player’s contract. Amaro stated that ‘Lee
is not going anywhere’, but I can’t figure out why he would place Lee out there
if he did not want to see what the market could possibly take for Lee. All of
this is a clear sign, that after being swept by the Braves in Atlanta last
weekend, the white flag has been hoisted, but there are still games to be
Halladay has had a poor season by
his standards. Yet, he is one of the best right-handed starting pitchers on any
given start. The Diamondbacks are hitting just .249 and scoring an average of
3.7 runs per game in 52 road games this season. The only concern I have with
Halladay is that his fastball has been down since his return from the disabled
list. When he is unhittable, his fastball needs to be in the 93 MPH
consistently. It is now between 90 and 93, which makes it easier for hitters to
sit on his fastball. His best pitches though are his curve where batters are
hitting just .173 and his change where batters are hitting just .194. When he
locates those pitches, it truly does not matter much that his fastball is 90
instead of 93, it still gets outs.
Pick: Take the Phillies