The Bronx Bombers earned a split in a four-game series in the Motor City by winning the last two games and will now travel north of the border to take on the Blue Jays. Let’s take a closer look at this AL East matchup from a betting perspective.
Don’t sleep on the
Blue Jays despite their recent troubles
The Toronto Blue Jays
have been unable to overcome a rash of injuries over the last month, which
became even more evident in posting a 2-8 record on their recent 10-game road
trip. There’s no doubt that sports bettors will have a difficult time
backing this team against the AL East leaders, but the home team has won all
five meetings in this season series in 2012. The New York Yankees are
just 7-13 at the Rogers Centre since the start of the 2010 campaign.
Romero provides hope
in the series opener
pitcher Freddy Garcia (5-5, 5.00 ERA) snapped a three-game personal losing
streak with a 6-2 home win over the Seattle Mariners last time out, giving up
two runs and five hits over five frames. The right-hander is 2-2 with a
4.23 ERA in 10 road outings (six starts), but hasn’t enjoyed much success
inside this ballpark over his career. In nine appearances in Toronto,
Garcia has tallied a dismal 3-5 record and 6.89 ERA.
Even with Garcias' poor record in Toronto, the MLB odds makers are still backing him in this matchup. After opening at -130, the betting lines have actually increased to -145 in the Yankees favor.
Handicapper Steven Suarez has decided to add this game to his "MLB Betting Parlay", counting on the OVER to cash for bettors. I, however, believe that there is better value to be found in playing the money line.
Ricky Romero (8-8,
5.47 ERA) is suffering through the worst year of his four-year career, but has
a chance to turn things around due to his numbers in August. The
left-hander has tallied a 10-3 record and 3.47 ERA in 19 lifetime starts during
this calendar month. In 11 outings against the Bronx Bombers, Romero is
3-5 with a 5.37 ERA, including an 0-3 mark and 7.13 ERA in the last three.
The current MLB
betting odds place the Blue Jays in an advantageous position, going 8-6 as a
home underdog of +100 to +125 this season, while the Yankees are just 8-8 as a
road favorite of -125 to -150. Toronto’s bullpen has also compiled a 1.26
ERA in the last 10 games, which makes the club dangerous in this spot. Take advantage of this line, and add the Blue Jays as dogs to you baseball picks for Friday's game.
MLB Picks: Toronto
Nova has been hit hard
pitcher Ivan Nova (10-6, 4.81 ERA) has been hammered in dropping back-to-back
starts to the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles, allowing 16 runs and 21
hits over 10.1 combined innings. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.87 ERA
in 13 road outings, serving up 11 home runs in 81.1 frames. Nova will be
making his third appearance (second start) north of the border, posting an 0-1
mark and 4.50 ERA.
Blue Jays starting
pitcher Aaron Laffey (3-2, 4.39 ERA) will need to try and keep the ball down
against the league’s top home run hitting team, as he’s surrendered four round
trippers over his last three outings (55.1 IP, 9 HR overall). The
left-hander is 1-0 with a 5.14 ERA in five home appearances (three starts),
issuing seven walks and striking out 14 batters in 21 innings. In three
career appearances versus the Yankees, Laffey has compiled a 0-1 record and
suggest rain showers in the Toronto area for the second game of this series,
which will likely cause the roof to be closed. I still recommend a play
on the OVER for any total at 9.5 or lower, while I anticipate the Yankees will
be road favorites of -160 to -175.
MLB Picks: Take the OVER